Investigating the potential for West Nile virus outbreaks in the United Kingdom using a mathematical epidemiological model

西尼罗河病毒(WNV)现在是美国大陆蚊媒疾病的主要原因，在欧洲也是一个新的威胁。它似乎正在扩大其在欧洲的地理范围，并导致与人类发病率和死亡率有关的越来越多的疫情。1996年，在欧洲罗马尼亚观察到第一次WNV大爆发，人和马的病例数量和死亡率都很高。从那时起，疫情开始在匈牙利、罗马尼亚、希腊、捷克共和国和俄罗斯频繁爆发。最近，几乎所有东欧、中欧和南欧国家都报告了这种病毒每年都会重新出现，西欧国家也开始经历零星的疫情。气候变化不可避免地改善了蚊子栖息环境的栖息地适宜性，使更多的合格媒介得以分布，并推动了疾病的传播。这项研究旨在解决这样一个问题，即英国将如何受到西尼罗河病毒的影响？最近的研究表明，英国出现第一例西尼罗河病毒病例只是一个时间问题，如果要实施控制和缓解策略，了解病毒可能如何以及在哪里出现是很重要的。该项目建议开发一个数学模型，通过使用欧洲疫情和最近英国出现的乌苏图病毒的可用数据来探索西尼罗河病毒在英国的爆发。这项工作将解决几个目标：评估英国出现西尼罗河病毒最合适的栖息地，探索英国可能爆发的范围，以及评估如果发生疫情可能采取的控制策略的有效性。

West Nile virus (WNV) is now the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental US and is an emerging threat in Europe. It appears to be expanding in its geographical range in Europe and causing increasing numbers of outbreaks associated with human morbidity and mortality.In 1996, the first large outbreak of WNV was observed in Europe, in Romania with high numbers of human and equine cases and a high fatality rate. Since then, outbreaks began occurring frequently in Hungary, Romania, Greece, the Czech Republic and Russia. More recently, almost all Eastern, Central and Southern European countries report annual re-emergence of the virus, and Western European countries are also beginning to experience sporadic outbreaks too.Inevitably, climate change is improving the habitat suitability of the environment for mosquitos to reside in, enabling a greater distribution of competent vectors and driving the spread of the disease.This research aims to address the question, how will the UK be affected by West Nile virus? Recent research has suggested it is only a matter of time before the first WNV case emerges in the UK, and it is important to understand how and where the virus might surface if control and mitigation strategies are going to be implemented.This project proposes to develop a mathematical model to explore outbreaks of WNV in the UK, by using available data from European outbreaks and the recent Usutu virus emergence in the UK. The work will address several aims: assessing the most suitable habitat for the emergence of WNV in the UK, exploring how extensive an outbreak could potentially be in the UK, and assessing the efficacy of possible control strategies if an outbreak were to occur.