Assessment of hazard and risk due to induced seismicity for underground CO2 storage and oil and gas production assets.

石油和天然气的生产会引发地震活动。地震活动水平有问题的情况很少见，而且只发生在一小部分油气田。然而，高水平地震活动的潜在影响证明有理由对危险和风险进行仔细的监测和建模。这种诱发地震还源于一种应对气候变化的新战略，特别是在地下水库捕获和储存二氧化碳的情况下。准确预测未来提取/注入情况下的危险对于确保该过程的安全运行至关重要。统计方法在监测策略的设计以及对这些危险和风险的评估中起着重要的作用。本项目旨在改进现有的标记点模式数据的统计模型，以便为地震危险评估提供信息。随着时间的推移，现场地震检波器网络的改进使较小震级的地震得以检测到。这导致了多年的数据丢失问题，当时地震检波器网络的密度不够高，无法检测到所有小震级地震事件。该项目将探索一种使用极值分析的时空阈值选择方法来解决这一问题。与壳牌合作。

Production of oil and gas can cause seismic activity. Problematic levels of seismic activity are rare and occur only in a small minority of oil and gas fields. However, the potential impact of high levels of seismic activity justifies careful monitoring and modelling of hazards and risks. Such induced earthquakes also arise from a new strategy used to combat climate change, specifically where CO2 is captured and stored in underground reservoirs. Accurate forecasting of hazards under scenarios for future extraction/injection is vital in ensuring the process is operated safely. Statistical methodology plays an important role in the design of monitoring strategies and in the assessment of these hazards and risks.This project aims to improve upon current statistical models of marked point pattern data to inform the assessment of seismic hazards. Improvements to the geophone network at the site over time have allowed smaller magnitude earthquakes to be detected. This leads to the problem of missing data from the years where the geophone network was not dense enough to detect all small magnitude seismic events. This project will explore a spatio-temporal threshold selection method using an extreme value analysis to address this issue. In partnership with Shell.