The effect of framing on public opinion: evidence from the Eurozone crisis

个人对危机期间经济表现的看法在多大程度上对政治结果产生了影响，这在多大程度上引起了激烈的争论，然而，主流方法并不质疑这些看法是如何形成的，以及哪些因素可能会影响它们。值得注意的是，这项研究的目的是帮助文献打开个人感知的“黑匣子”，提供比主流理性选择方法更全面的方法。本文的目的是检验在欧元区危机期间，不同的叙事是否对公众舆论产生了影响。在政治参与者的论述中，可以找到两种不同的说法：一种是强调债务国的财政挥霍是危机的原因，另一种是认为欧元区的结构性失衡负有责任。通过运用各种定量方法和实验技术，我将分析这两种叙事的跨国分布。对这些独特叙事的研究至关重要，因为它们影响着个人对危机原因的看法，而这反过来可能会对政治结果产生影响。举个例子，债务国的个人可能会对实施的紧缩措施感到失望，因为在这些国家，结构性失衡的框架更为普遍。因此，对叙事的分析对于理解当前的关键政治发展至关重要，比如公众舆论的两极分化。

The extent to which individual perception of economic performance during the crisis had an impact on political outcomes is highly debated, nonetheless, mainstream approaches do not question how these perceptions are formed and what factors might influence them. Significantly, the research aims at contributing to the literature opening the "black box" of individual perceptions, providing a more comprehensive approach than mainstream rational choice approaches. The aim of this dissertation is to test whether different narratives had an effect on public opinion during the Eurozone crisis. Two different narratives can be identified in the discourses from political actors: one highlights fiscal profligacy of debtor countries as the cause of the crisis, the other holds the structural imbalances of the Eurozone responsible. By using a variety of quantitative methods and experimental techniques, I will analyse the cross-country distribution of both narratives. The study of these distinctive narratives is crucial as they influence individual perceptions of the causes of the crisis, which, in turn, might have had an impact on political outcomes. To give an example, individuals from debtor countries, where the structural imbalances framing was more widespread, might be disappointed with the austerity measures implemented. Therefore, the analysis of narratives is crucial in understanding key current political developments such as the polarisation of public opinion.