LIVING ARRANGEMENTS, HEALTH AND WEALTH OF THE ELDERLY

本研究的主要目标是了解从退休到死亡的生活安排是如何演变的，它们如何取决于老年人在退休之初的初始社会经济地位，以及它们在未来不同的经济和家庭条件下可能发生的变化。我们将使用五波AHEAD数据来构建生活安排、健康状况和财富，以及收入、婚姻状况、家庭联系和劳动力状况的轨迹。基于这些轨迹，我们将估计由生活安排、健康状况和财富定义的状态之间移动的联合过渡概率，同时考虑到可观察到的协变量和持续的个人水平异质性。我们将使用这些过渡概率来阐明行为假设，并模拟2000年达到70岁的人群在未来社会保障和医疗保险福利、子女数量和邻近程度、女性劳动力参与和类似社会经济条件等不同假设下的未来生活安排。

The broad goal of this proposed research is to understand how living arrangements evolve from retirement to death, how they depend on the initial socio-economic status of the elderly at the beginning of their retirement years, and how they might change under different economic and family conditions in the future. We will use five waves of AHEAD data to construct trajectories of living arrangements, health status and wealth, together with income, marital status, family links and labor force status. Based on these trajectories, we will estimate joint transition probabilities of moving between states defined by living arrangement, health status and wealth, taking account of observable covariates and persistent individual-level heterogeneity. We will use these transition probabilities to shed light on behavioral hypotheses and to simulate future living arrangements of the cohort reaching age 70 in the year 2000 under alternative assumptions about future Social Security and Medicare benefits, number and proximity of children, and female labor force participation and similar socio-economic conditions.