Buildings of 2050: Carbon benefits of material substitution in building structures from a life-cycle perspective

研究背景：建筑业在温室气体排放中发挥着重要作用，因为它们占全球能源和与工艺相关的二氧化碳排放量的39%，其中11%来自建筑材料制造业。随着建筑物的运行变得越来越节能，在寻求建筑环境脱碳的过程中，减少材料的具体排放变得不可避免。在此背景下，鼓励设计者开展生命周期评估(LCA)，以减少其建筑的具体碳。由于目前的行业过度使用混凝土和钢铁，小规模的经验法则是摆脱这种做法，选择与较低排放相关的生物基材料。然而，如果每个人都得出这个结论，生物材料的边际体现碳可能会变得如此之高，从而违背其最初的目的。其目的和目标：在这种情况下，本研究的目的是对英国的碳储量和材料流动进行系统级别的分析，并将其与建筑级别的设计决策联系起来。这将回答以下问题：我们如何引导各个建筑物级别的设计选择取得理想的全系统结果？当潜在影响存在重大不确定性时，应控制哪些最重要的外部因素以将这些影响降至最低？

The context of the research:The construction industry has a significant role in greenhouse gas emissions as they account for 39% of global energy and process-related carbon dioxide emissions, with 11% resulting from the manufacture of building materials. As the operation of buildings is getting increasingly energy efficient, reducing the embodied emissions of materials is becoming inevitable when seeking to decarbonize our built environment. In this context, designers are encouraged to carry-out life-cycle assessments (LCA) to reduce the embodied carbon of their buildings. As the current industry overuses concrete and steel, the rule of thumb of the small scale is to move-away from this practice and choose bio-based materials associated with lower emissions. However, if everyone was to draw this conclusion, the marginal embodied carbon of bio-based materials might become so high that it defeats its original purpose.Its aims and objectives:In this context, the aim of this research is to carry out a system-level analysis of carbon stocks and flows of materials in the UK and to link them down to building-level design decisions. This will answer the following questions: How can we guide individual building-level design choices towards desirable system-wide outcomes? When there is significant uncertainty in potential impacts, what are the most important external factors to control to minimize these impacts?