Using systems thinking to model cyber defence strategies within the UK ecosystem

博士之旅始于试图理解为了应对网络领域的复杂性而使用的战略方法。这段旅程导致了国际关系文献中的威慑理论，然而，随后发现威慑方法高度依赖于不具有相同关键组成部分的领域，具体地说：私营部门发挥的大部分作用；高度网络化的互动；以及低门槛互动。本文旨在解决其中一些问题，以便更好地构建更符合网络领域特点的领域，而不是来自其他领域的框架。这将使决策者在处理网络领域和讨论这一领域时得到更好的信息。网络战略研究的这种方法在文献中还处于早期阶段，这使得在这一领域推进的潜力非常令人感兴趣。博士学位包括三个步骤：1.模型基础：第一步是创建一个模型，以表示网络领域的动态。通过文献和讨论，并使用系统思维，确定在建模过程中应该使用哪些驱动因素，以及应该如何表示这些驱动因素。在开发了模型之后，通过使用专家来验证所使用的驱动因素和假设。2.情景制定阶段：在下一步，将模型的产出转化为适合在半结构化访谈中传播和讨论的格式。在这一过程中，决定什么是使信息可供查阅的最佳格式，同时还为参与者提供互动，并影响关于模型输入(和输出)的决定。3.半结构化面谈过程：使用在建模过程中创建的情景和由此创建的可视化，对不同部门进行测试，以了解不同的利益攸关方如何参与。这将分两部分进行：案例研究探索：首先将与了解和了解网络领域和/或利用这一过程的迭代进行建模的利益攸关方接触，同时整合学习。验证学习：使用可能更新的模型和可视化参与，面试过程的第二部分将是与决策者交谈。这些参与者可能对网络和/或建模领域的知识较少。这里的目的是获得关于这种方法的有用性的反馈，以及他们可能从哪些方面学到了什么。

The PhD journey started from trying to understand the strategic approach which is used in order to engage with the complexity of the cyber domain. This journey led to deterrence theory within international relations literatures, however, subsequently the deterrence approach was found to be highly dependent on domains which did not possess the same crucial components, specifically: the large part played by the private sector; highly networked interaction; and low threshold interactions.This PhD aims to address some of these issues in order to better frame the area which is more aligned to the specificities of the cyber domain as opposed to frameworks taken from other areas. This will allow decision makers to be better informed when dealing with the cyber domain and discussing this area. This approach within cyber strategic studies research is at an early stage within the literatures which makes the potential of pushing forward in this area highly interesting.The PhD comprises a three-step process:1. Model Fundamentals: The first step is to create a model in order to represent the dynamics of the cyber domain. Through literatures and discussions, and using systems thinking, it is determined which drivers should be used in the modelling process and how this should be represented. After the model has been developed the drivers and assumptions used are validated though the use of experts. 2. Scenario development phase: At the next step, the outputs of the model are translated into a format suitable for dissemination and discussion within semi structured interviews. This is the process where it is decided what is the optimum format to allow information to be accessible whilst also providing participants to interact and influence decisions on the inputs (and thus outputs) of the model. 3. Semi-structured interview process: Using the scenarios created within the modelling process and the visualisations created from this, these are tested across different sectors in order to see how various stakeholders engage. This will be done in two parts: Case study exploration: Engagement will first be with stakeholders who know and understand either the cyber domain and/or modelling with iterations of this process, along with integrating learnings. Validation of learning: Using potentially updated modelling and visualisations engagement the second part of the interview process will be with decision makers. These participants are likely to have less knowledge of the cyber and/or modelling fields. The aim here is to get feedback on the usefulness of the approach and what learnings they may have taken away from.