Advanced analytical methods to support improved decision-making in railway systems

铁路项目的需求预测和评估方法已被证明具有严重的局限性，特别是对于某些类型的方案。例如，兴建新的铁路线和车站，选择和引入替代的轻轨系统，或对使用率不足的线路进行运营选择。除其他外，这些局限性包括需求预测存在很大的不准确性，未能抓住铁路相对于其他运输形式的差别价值，以及对更广泛的社会和经济影响的考虑不完整。在上述所有应用中，铁路的变化与运输系统的其他部分有着密切的相互关系，需要采用更先进的方法来掌握铁路和更广泛的运输网络的复杂性，本项目将在需求预测领域开发先进的分析方法，并将其应用于铁路评估。该研究将有助于开发最先进的一套方法，以支持加强铁路、新铁路技术和整个运输部门的决策。

Demand forecasting and appraisal methods for railway projects have been shown to have severe limitations especially for certain types of schemes. For example, the construction of new railway lines and stations, the selection and introduction of alternative light rail systems or operational choices regarding under-utilised lines. The limitations include, among others, large inaccuracies in demand forecasting, failure to capture the differential value of railways relative to other forms of transport and an incomplete account of wider social and economic impact. In all of the applications mentioned, changes in the railways are subject to strong interrelationships with the rest of the transport system and more advanced methods are required to capture the complexities of the railway and broader transport networks.This project will develop advanced analytical methods in the area of demand forecasting, with application for rail appraisal. The research will contribute towards developing the state-of-the-art suite of methods to support enhanced decision-making in railways, new rail technologies and the transport sector as a whole.