Components of nuptiality and fertility change

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究将根据日本每日新闻进行的1990年、1994年、1996年、1998年、2000年和2004年全国计划生育调查的数据，分析结婚率和生育率变化的组成部分。拟议的研究既有方法方面的内容，也有实质性内容。方法上的创新包括：（1）发展了一种多元方法，用于分析预测变量对初婚进展的时期和队列寿命表指标的影响;（2）发展了一种多元方法，用于分析预测变量对总和生育率和总和婚育率的时期和队列指标的影响;（3）发展一种多变量方法，用于计算第一次婚姻进展的时期和队列生命表指标的变化成分;（4）发展一种多变量方法，用于计算总生育率和总婚姻生育率的时期和队列指标的变化成分。这四种方法是相关的，它们都利用风险回归。研究的实质性部分将涉及应用这些方法来分析（1）每轮调查中影响结婚率和生育率的因素，以及（2）由于各种人口和社会经济因素，调查之间结婚率和生育率变化的组成部分。这项研究将建立在研究人员先前发表的关于日本婚姻和生育率变化的研究成果的基础上。这项研究的预期成果是在2006年美国人口协会年会上提出一篇论文，并在一份主要人口期刊上发表一篇文章（在赠款结束前提交出版）。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The research will analyze components of change in nuptiality and fertility, based on data from the 1990, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2004 rounds of the National Survey on Family Planning, conducted by the Mainichi Newspapers of Japan. The proposed research has a methodological component as well as a substantive component. Methodological innovations include the following: (1) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; (2) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort measures of the total fertility rate and the total marital fertility rate; (3) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; and (4) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period a cohort measures of the total fertility rate and total marital fertility rate. The four methods are related, and they all utilize hazard regression. The substantive component of the research will involve application of these methods to analyze (1) factors affecting nuptiality and fertility in each of the survey rounds and (2) components of change in nuptiality and fertility between the surveys due to various demographic and socioeconomic factors. The research will build on previous published work by the investigators on nuptiality and fertility change in Japan. Expected output from the research is one paper to be presented at the 2006 annual meeting of the Population Association of America and one article in a major population journal (submitted for publication by the end of the grant).