Arctic 2050: better forecasts of near-future Arctic climate change (Ref 4607)

项目背景在过去的四十年里，北极气候发生了深刻的变化：北极变暖的速度比全球平均速度快四倍（Rantanen et al 2022）;海冰覆盖面积急剧缩小;存活超过一年的冰的比例减少（图1）。最先进的气候模型预测，这些趋势将在未来几十年继续下去。然而，与这些预测相关的不确定性非常大。CMIP 6模型表明，未来30年北极变暖的范围可能在1 ℃到6 ℃之间，这些不确定性来自不完善的模型，缺乏对未来排放的完美了解以及内部气候变化。北极2050的总体目标是系统地减少这些不确定性，这将使区域利益攸关方和北极社区能够制定应对近期气候变化的强有力计划。其他研究问题包括：（i）近期北极气候变化有多少是不可避免的？(ii)与此相关的是，到本世纪中叶，北极无冰夏季（图2）的出现是否不可避免，就像最近提出的那样（SIMIP 2020）？(iii)观察到的气候系统的哪些特征可以让我们预测北极未来几十年的情况？以及（四）向决策者和区域利益攸关方传达成果的最佳方式是什么？项目目的和方法为了提供更精确的北极气候变化的近期预测，学生将分析CMIP 6档案的综合气候模型输出，并利用新一代大型合奏（Deser等人，2020年）。在整个项目中，学生将使用新的方法来约束气候预测，包括先进的统计技术和基于补充过程的紧急约束框架（Hall et al 2019），以及应用数据可视化策略和广泛使用最先进的气候模型数据。向政策制定者和利益相关者传达结果的一种方法是构建气候故事情节（Shepherd et al 2018）。该项目旨在与气候影响联系起来，并具有真实的世界政策影响。在导师的支持下，学生将被鼓励塑造研究的重点，以适应自己的兴趣。该学生将主要在埃克塞特大学工作，埃克塞特大学是著名的罗素集团的成员，也是世界领先的气候科学中心。将有机会花时间在英国南极调查和气象局，并与非学术合作伙伴参与。

Project BackgroundArctic climate has changed profoundly over the last four decades: the Arctic has warmed four times faster than the global average (Rantanen et al 2022); the area covered by sea ice has dramatically shrunk; and the proportion of ice surviving more than one year is reduced (Fig 1). These trends are projected by state-of-the-art climate models to continue over the coming decades. However, the uncertainties associated with these projections are very large. CMIP6 models suggest that the Arctic warming experienced over the next 30 years could span the range of 1C to 6C.These uncertainties arise from imperfect models, the lack of perfect knowledge about future emissions, and internal climate variability. The overarching aim of Arctic 2050 is to systematically reduce these uncertainties, which would enable regional stakeholders and Arctic communities to develop robust plans for dealing with near-term climate change. Other research questions include: (i) how much of near-term Arctic climate change is unavoidable? (ii) relatedly, is the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer (Fig 2) by mid-century inevitable as has been recently suggested (SIMIP 2020)? (iii) which observed features of the climate system give us predictability for the coming decades in the Arctic? and (iv) what is the best way to convey results to policymakers and regional stakeholders? Project Aims and MethodsTo provide more precise near-term projections of Arctic climate change, the student will analyse comprehensive climate model output from the CMIP6 archive as well as leveraging the new generation of large ensembles (Deser et al 2020). Throughout the project, the student will use novel approaches to constrain the climate projections, including advanced statistical techniques and a complementary process-based emergent constraint framework (Hall et al 2019), as well as applying data visualisation strategies and working extensively with state-of-the-art climate model data. One approach for conveying results to policymakers and stakeholders will involve constructing climate storylines (Shepherd et al 2018).This project is designed to be connected with climate impacts and have real world policy implications. With support from the supervisors, the student will be encouraged to shape the focus of research to suit their own interests. The student will be primarily based at the University of Exeter, a member of the prestigious Russell Group and a centre for world-leading climate science. There will be opportunities to spend time at the British Antarctic Survey and Met Office, and to engage with non-academic partners.