Household Health Shocks and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Brazil

学术文献对健康状况对家庭经济指标的因果关系进行了深入研究，发现在非常不同的背景下有许多不同的、有时是相互矛盾的影响。对于这种冲击如何导致家庭成员参与犯罪的变化，例如为了补偿健康冲击造成的经济损失，所知甚少。在提议的工作中，我将致力于填补现有文献中的这一空白。先前关于这个问题的研究主要集中在BMI或其他健康状况不佳的一般指标等因素及其对许多不同结果的影响上。估计健康冲击对犯罪参与的因果影响是困难的，因为存在一些导致内生性问题的混杂因素。例如，贫困人口往往健康状况较差，同时更有可能从事犯罪活动，从而在因果模型中得出错误的结论。为了解决潜在的内质性问题，我将利用基孔肯雅病毒感染引起的外源性健康冲击来估计健康冲击对巴西家庭犯罪参与的因果影响，同时控制一些不同的固定效应。这让我可以利用随机变化，以一组固定效应为条件来控制社会经济环境和个人情况，从这些感染中估计健康冲击对犯罪参与的影响。基孔肯雅热是一种由蚊子传播的病毒感染，会导致严重的关节和肌肉疼痛。虽然急性疾病通常只持续大约一到两周，但大约40%的病例会发展为持续数月的慢性疾病，导致严重的关节疼痛，大部分患者无法参与任何体育活动。由于受影响个人的严重健康后果，其他家庭成员也可能受到影响。例如，如果疾病影响到家庭中的主要养家者，可能是父母，这可能会对家庭的劳动力供应产生负面影响（无论是养家者生病还是需要照顾的居民），因此可能会减少家庭收入。我将利用来自正式就业、家庭结构和社会经济信息的非常丰富的家庭收入信息来调查潜在的潜在机制。具体而言，我将旨在回答以下研究问题：(1)健康冲击是否对包括儿童在内的家庭成员的犯罪行为产生因果影响？(2)这种影响是否因患病个人的人口统计学特征和家庭组成（阶级、性别、年龄、地点、职业等）而异？(3)政府病假工资和其他福利规定在多大程度上抵消了健康冲击对家庭的影响。该项目将是第一批利用明确定义的外源性健康冲击分析健康冲击对家庭犯罪参与影响的项目之一。我希望这项工作的结果不仅会引起学术界的兴趣，也会引起那些需要决定如何应对健康冲击并帮助家庭在不诉诸犯罪的情况下顺利消费的政治家的兴趣。

The causal effect of health condition on economic household indicators has been thoroughly studied within academic literature, finding a multitude of different, sometimes contradictory effects within vastly different contexts. Little is known about how such shocks may lead to changes in criminal participation of household members, for example to compensate for the economic loss due to the health shock. In the proposed work, I will aim at filling this gap in the existing literature. Previous research on this question focuses on factors such as BMI or other general indicators of poor health and their impact on a number of different outcomes. Estimating the causal effect of health shocks on criminal involvement is difficult, because of the presence of a number of confounders leading to endogeneity problem. For instance, people in poverty tend to have poorer health condition and simultaneously are more likely to engage in crime which can lead to false conclusions within causal models. To address the underlying endogeneity problem, I will estimate the causal effect of health shocks on the criminal involvement of households in Brazil using exogenous health shock from Chikungunya virus infections while controlling for a number of different fixed-effects. This allows me to use as good as random variation, conditional on a set of fixed-effects to control for the socio-economic environment and individual circumstances, from those infections to estimate the effect of health shocks on criminal involvement. Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection that causes severe joint and muscle pain. While the acute illness usually only lasts for approximately one or two week(s), around 40% of cases develop a chronic condition lasting several months leading to severe joint pain mostly inhibiting affected individuals to engage in any physical activity. Because of the severe health consequences on the affected individual, the effects may include other household members. For example, if the illness affects the main breadwinner in the household, likely a parent, this may negatively affect the household's labour supply (whether it be the breadwinner falling ill or a resident requiring care) and therefore likely decreasing household income. I will use the very rich information on household income from formal employment, household structure and socio-economic information to investigate the potential underlying mechanisms. In detail I will aim at answering the following research questions: (1) Does the health shock have a causal effect on the criminal engagement of household members including children (2) does the effect vary by demographic characteristics of the individual falling and sick and by the household composition (class, gender, age, location, occupation etc.) estimating heterogeneous effects, (3) to what extent does government sick pay provision and other welfare provisions offset the effects of the health shock on households. This project will be among the first to analyse the effect of health shocks on household criminal engagement using exogenous health shocks that are very well defined. I expect the results of this work to be of interest to the academic community, but also to politicians that need to make decisions on how to respond to health shocks and help households to smooth consumption without resorting to engaging in crime.