Combining Data Analysis, Transmission, and Geostatistical Modelling to Support the Control and Elimination of Onchocerciasis in Africa

盘尾丝虫病是一种被忽视的热带寄生虫病，通过黑蝇媒介的叮咬在人间传播。感染致病因子盘尾丝虫病，会导致从慢性瘙痒到失明等一系列使人衰弱的疾病。世界卫生组织的目标是到2030年在撒哈拉以南非洲的12个国家消除盘尾丝虫病的传播。数学传播模型，如帝国理工学院的EPIONCHO-IBM，在预测疾病负担的变化和各种干预措施的成功方面至关重要。我的博士利用EPIONCHO-IBM进一步消除盘尾丝虫病的努力。我已将盘尾丝虫病相关癫痫（OAE）纳入该模型，确保捕捉到感染的全部负担。此外，我还确定了阈值咬伤率和影响最低负担水平的随机阈值的作用，在低流行条件下，该模型可以捕捉到需要在该领域实施药物干预的后续后果。目前，我的工作重点是了解这些阈值在Ov16患病率方面的位置，Ov16是一种盘尾丝虫病感染的血清学测量，以及调查从高流行到低流行的移民对建立新感染的影响。我的工作已经在两个国际会议上发表，还有一些出版物正在等待发表。

Onchocerciasis is a parasitic neglected tropical disease, transmitted among humans via the bites of the Simulium blackfly vector. Infection with the aetiological agent, Onchocerca volvulus, leads to a range of debilitating pathologies from chronic itching to blindness. The World Health Organization aim to obtain elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis in 12 countries across sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. Mathematical transmission models, such as Imperial College's EPIONCHO-IBM are crucial in forecasting the changing burden of the disease and success of varying interventions.My PhD utilises EPIONCHO-IBM to further elimination of onchocerciasis efforts. I have incorporated onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) into the model, ensuring the full burden of infection is captured. Further, I have determined threshold biting rates and the role of stochastic thresholds influencing the lowest level of burden, in hypoendemic conditions, the model can capture and the subsequent ramifications upon the need to implement pharmacological intervention in the field. Currently, my work focuses on both understanding where these thresholds also lie in terms of Ov16 prevalence, a serological measure of onchocerciasis infection, as well as investigating the influence of immigration from a hyper- to hypoendemic setting on establishing novel infection.My work has been presented at two international conferences with a number of publications pending.