Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change

目前的预测表明，人类驱动的气候变化可能会导致广泛的生物多样性丧失。然而，第四纪(260万年前至今)的气候变化与预计的21世纪的气候变化相似，显然没有造成大范围的灭绝(大型动物除外)。该项目旨在使用与物种基因中印记的过去反应相关的模型来解决观察到的和预测的物种灭绝速度之间的差异是否来自于过度预测气候变化造成的物种损失的模型。它将使用这种遗传-人口统计方法，通过确定生物和环境灭绝的决定因素，改善对生物多样性对全球变化反应的预测。

Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.