Improving Mortality Projections By Incorporating Cohort Smoking Histories

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究旨在通过纳入队列吸烟史的信息来改善美国的死亡率预测。在归因风险方面，吸烟在美国造成的死亡比任何其他风险因素都多。先前的研究已经证明了队列的吸烟史对其随后的死亡率的强大影响。我们打算将这些风险纳入李-卡特预测模型，该模型以前没有以适应时期和队列影响的方式开发。即使死亡率预测略有改善，也将对美国的财政前景产生重大影响; 安全管理局改变了系统的财政平衡4.1万亿美元，这是任何基本预测参数变化的最大影响。分析的一个重要副产品将是一个时期死亡率条件的指数，该指数清除了由不同的队列吸烟模式引入的干扰。在2005-2050年预测期内，许多相关的吸烟行为已经被观察到。对于那些很少或没有观察到吸烟行为的人群，我们将采用年龄/时期/人群吸烟行为模型，该模型是根据1965年至2003年收集的25项全国健康访谈调查的可比吸烟数据估计的。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research is aimed at improving mortality projections in the United States by incorporating information on a cohort's history of cigarette smoking. In terms of attributable risk, cigarette smoking accounts for more deaths in the United States than any other risk factor. Previous research has demonstrated powerful effects of a cohort's smoking history on its subsequent mortality. We intend to incorporate these risks into the Lee-Carter projection model, which has not previously been developed in a way that accommodates both period and cohort influences. Even modest improvements in mortality projections will have major implications for the fiscal future of the United States; movement from the high to the low mortality projection series of the Social Security Administration changes the fiscal balance of the system by $4.1 trillion, the largest impact of variation in any underlying projection parameter. An important byproduct of the analysis will be an index of period mortality conditions that is purged of the disturbances introduced by disparate cohort smoking patterns. Much of the smoking behavior that is relevant during the projection period 2005-2050 has already been observed. For those cohorts for whom little or no smoking behavior has been observed, we will employ an age/period/cohort model of smoking behavior that is estimated on 25 National Health Interview Surveys that collected comparable smoking data from 1965 to 2003.