PROPENSITY TO FLY: THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATED CHOICE MODELS FOR AIR TRAVEL

个人飞行的次数比以往任何时候都多，飞行距离也更远。瑞安航空(Ryanair)和易捷航空(EasyJet)等低成本航空公司的蓬勃发展，使航空旅行变得更实惠，并正在刺激休闲和日益增长的商务需求。研究的重点是普通公众以及他们在决定是否乘坐飞机时所做的选择。例如，如果机票价格上涨了20%，但到达机场的时间减少了10%，那么一个人还会选择乘坐飞机进行特定的旅行吗？这项研究的总体目标是评估个人乘坐飞机的倾向或可能性。它涉及到发展既定的选择模型来评估飞行倾向，以及这种倾向在不同人口部分之间的差异。这些建模和细分任务的数据将主要来自对个人飞行偏好的问卷调查。数据将从诺丁汉东米德兰机场所在的东米德兰兹地区的1000多名居民中收集。调查中的问题将涉及社会经济信息、机场通道、飞行历史和对航空旅行的态度。此外，还将包括一系列声明的偏好问题，受访者将在这些问题中假设是否乘坐廉价航空公司的特定休闲旅行。该项目将提供声明的选择建模能力，并更好地了解航空旅行市场细分。这些发现将有利于航空政策制定者，因为他们考虑航空旅行需求预测和未来机场容量。航空公司和地区性机场也将受益，特别是那些对东米德兰兹地区的航空旅行需求感兴趣的公司。

Individuals are flying more than ever before and over greater distances. The boom in low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet has made air travel more affordable and is stimulating leisure and increasingly, business demand. The research focus is on the general public and the choices they make when deciding whether to fly or not. For instance, if air fares rise by 20%, but the time taken to reach the airport falls by 10%, would an individual still choose to fly for a particular journey?The overall goal of the research is to assess the propensity, or likelihood, of individuals to fly. It concerns the development of stated choice models to assess the propensity to fly, and how this propensity varies across different segments of the population. Data for these modelling and segmentation tasks will largely come from a questionnaire survey of individual flying preferences. Data will be collected from over 1,000 residents of the East Midlands region, in which Nottingham East Midlands airport is located. Questions in the survey will concern socio-economic information, access to airports, flight history and attitudes towards air travel. In addition, a series of stated preference questions will be included, in which respondents will make hypothetical choices of whether to fly or not for specified leisure trips using low-cost airlines.The project will deliver a stated choice modelling capability and a greater understanding of air travel market segments. Such findings will be of benefit to aviation policy-makers, as they consider air travel demand forecasting and future airport capacity. Airlines and regional airports will also be beneficiaries, particularly those interested in the demand for air travel in the East Midlands region.