The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Development of Cities (LUCID)

该项目将开发世界领先的方法来计算城市环境中的当地温度和空气质量。然后将探讨气候变化对能源使用的影响和对健康的后果。将详细考虑对城市规划的影响。将这种方法应用于城市地区，将极大地有助于规划过程的指导，而且这种建模对于估计和预测从目前不合适的做法向更可持续的城市社区的转变至关重要。气候正在变暖是压倒性的共识，越来越多的人认识到，现在做出的决定需要考虑当地气候将如何变化。目前对英国的预测是，夏季更长、更热，冬季更湿、更多风，到本世纪80年代，东南部气温将上升2.5至4摄氏度。这种幅度的变化，特别是在夏季，将导致建筑物内部过热的普遍程度大大增加。预计夏季湿度也会增加，限制了通过自然通风为建筑物降温的能力。超过30摄氏度的高温天气出现的频率将会增加，而相关的城市热岛效应将导致极端气温频繁出现，尤其是在大城市地区。适应和改善这种危险的环境需要适当的城市规划、住房和交通政策，例如，1995年的芝加哥、2001年的希腊和2003年的法国，最近已经经历了这种致命的影响。但是，在制定这些政策之前，需要有量化工具来确定和量化缓解和适应战略的有效性。死亡率的上升显然是气温上升的一个极端后果。然而，很明显，人们感到“不舒服”的时间比例有可能增加。这增加了大量增加使用机械冷却系统的可能性，并因此增加能源使用，特别是在城市地区。与城市热岛相关的高温预计会使情况变得更糟。特别是，建筑被动冷却的一种策略是白天将热量储存在建筑结构中，晚上通过通风冷却。但这种方法依赖于夜间温度足够低。城市热岛通常在夜间最为明显，因此了解这种方法是否仍然可行非常重要。建筑对当地的小气候做出了回应和贡献。有效的建筑设计需要对这种小气候的认识和处理方法。未来的道路是什么？目前，已有方法可以估计城市地区温度过高的大致程度，并且已经开展了一些测量活动。然而，目前还没有确定的实用方法或工具来评估当地规划决策（土地利用、建筑布局方向和设计、开放空间或公园的大小）对当地气候细节的影响。然后，该项目将开发和测试最先进的方法来计算城市环境中的当地气候和空气质量。然后将探讨对内部建筑环境的影响、能源使用和对健康的后果。将详细考虑对城市规划的影响。这一提议将气象学家、建筑科学家、城市建模者、规划师、城市和建筑设计师以及流行病学家聚集在一起，共同研究城市如何适应不断变化的气候。该建议以一种最一致的方式有效地联合了两个联盟/模型开发人员和模型用户。

This project will develop world leading methods for calculating local temperature and air quality in the urban environment. The impact on energy use and the consequences for health of a changing climate will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail. Such methods applied to urban areas would contribute greatly to the generation of guidance in planning process and such modelling is seen as essential to estimate and predict the transition from the present unsuitable practices to more sustainable urban communitiesThere is overwhelming consensus that the climate is warming and an increasing recognition that decisions made now need to be informed by how the local climate will change. Current projections for the UK are for longer, hotter summers and wetter, windier winters, with the South-East warming by between 2.5oC and 4 oC by the 2080s. A change of this magnitude, particularly in summer will lead to much increased prevalence of overheating inside buildings. Humidity is also predicted to increase during the summers limiting the ability to cool buildings through natural ventilation. The frequency of summer days when there are very warm temperatures above 30oC will increase and associated urban heat island effects will lead to frequent extreme temperatures especially in large urban areas. Adapting to and ameliorating such dangerous conditions, whose deadly affects have recently been experienced, for instance in Chicago in 1995, in Greece in 2001 and in France in 2003, will require appropriate policies of urban planning, housing and transport. But before these policies can be developed, quantitative tools are required to identify and quantify the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies.Increased mortality clearly represents an extreme consequence of rising temperatures. However, it is clear that the proportion of the time that people will feel 'uncomfortable' has the potential to increase. This raises the possibility of a large increase in the use of mechanical cooling systems and a consequent rise in energy use, particularly in urban areas. Higher temperatures associated with the urban heat island are expected to make things worse. In particular, one strategy for passive cooling of buildings is through storing heat within the building fabric during the day and cooling through ventilation at night. But this method relies on the night time temperatures being sufficiently low. The urban heat island is typically most pronounced at night, and so it is important to know whether or not this method remains viable. Buildings both respond to and contribute to the local microclimate. Effective building design requires a knowledge of, and ways of dealing with, this microclimate. What is the way ahead? Currently, methods exist to estimate the broad magnitude of excess temperatures in urban areas and there have been some measurement campaigns. However, there are no established practical methods or tools for assessing the impact of local planning decisions (land use, building-layout orientation and design, size of open spaces or parks) on the fine details of the local climate. This project then will develop and test state-of-the-art methods for calculating local climate and air quality in the urban environment. The impact on the internal built environment, energy use and the consequences for health will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail.This proposal brings together a new consortium of meteorologists, building scientists, urban modellers, planners, urban and building designers and epidemiologists to research how cities can adapt to a changing climate. The proposal effectively unites two consortia / model developers and model users / in a most coherent manner.