World of Uncertainty

我们想要建立和测试一个教育电脑游戏，决策者可以在其中学习如何处理不确定性。通过体验一个充满不确定性的世界，并明确估计那个世界的不确定性，他们可以发展在不确定条件下做出决策所需的技能和态度，而不是试图从问题中消除不确定性。决策者、记者和公众经常以相互竞争的方式讨论科学问题(例如，全球变暖是/不是威胁)。在简化科学的过程中，所有的不确定性都从这些叙述中消除了。我们相信故事的本能可能会扭曲我们的决定。这就是公关和SPIN能够如此成功的原因。这不是一个用统计数据撒谎的例子，但叙述性的谎言比统计数据更容易理解。但在这个世界里，与唱片世界不同，百万分之一的机会不会发生在十有八九的情况下。事实比虚构更奇怪。那么，我们如何才能让更多参与决策的人了解不确定性呢？与其试图消除不确定性，不如教他们如何探索不确定性，像博彩公司或职业赌徒那样沉着应对。如果我们能让决策者和公众更好地理解不确定性，让科学家向他们汇报，让他们更好地理解故事，那么我们就有机会弥合这种理解上的差距。有一个领域没有线性叙事占主导地位：电脑游戏。与电影、书籍甚至电视科幻纪录片不同，电脑游戏并不遵循单一的叙事线索。取而代之的是，玩家根据他或她在玩游戏时的决定和行动创建他或她自己的叙事。我们将构建一个原型计算机游戏，在该游戏中，受训决策者可以探索不确定的数据，估计她有多不确定，并获得关于她处理不确定性的程度的反馈。想象一个游戏，在这款游戏中，兽医专业的学生可以探索在做流行病决策时的不确定性，无论是疯牛病、口蹄疫还是禽流感。游戏内部将有一个不确定性引擎，它可以处理给玩家打分的数学运算，而不是得到正确的答案，而是正确地估计他们的不确定性。然后我们衡量这个游戏对学习者群体的影响，看看他们是否能够提高处理不确定性的技能，以及他们对科学不确定性的理解。如果它奏效，这可能是一种新型教育游戏的模型。

We want to build and test an educational computer game in which decision-makers can learn how to handle uncertainty.By experiencing a world of uncertainty, and by explicitly estimating uncertainty in that world, they can develop the skills and attitudes needed to make decisions under uncertain conditions, instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty from the problem. Too often, decision-makers, journalists and members of the public discuss scientific issues in terms of competing stories (e.g. global warming is/is not a threat). In simplifying the science, all uncertainty has been removed from these narratives. Decisions can be distorted by our natural instinct to believe in stories. That is why PR and spin can be so successful. It isn't a case of lying with statistics, but the narrative lie is better understood than the statistics. But in this world, unlike the Discworld, million-to-one chances do not happen nine times out of ten. Truth is stranger than fiction.So how can we get more people involved in decision-making to understand uncertainty? Instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty, lets teach them how to explore uncertainty, handling it with the aplomb of a bookmaker or professional gambler. If we can get decision-makers and the public to better understand uncertainty, and scientists reporting to them to better understand stories, then we stand a chance of bridging this gap in understanding.There is one space where linear narrative does not dominate: the computer game. Unlike films, books, or even TV science documentaries, a computer game does not follow a single narrative thread. Instead the player creates his or her own narratives as a result of his or her decisions and actions while playing.We will build a prototype computer game in which a trainee decision-maker can explore uncertain data, make estimates of how uncertain she is, and get feedback on how well she handles the uncertainty. Imagine a game in which veterinary students can explore the uncertainties in making decisions about an epidemic, be it BSE, foot and mouth, or bird 'flu. Inside the game will be an uncertainty engine, which handles the mathematics of scoring players not on getting answers right, but correctly estimating how uncertain they are.Then we measure the effects this game has on groups of learners, to see if they can improve their skills in handling uncertainty, and their understanding of scientific uncertainty. If it works, this could be the model for a new kind of educational game.