The Use of Probabilistic Climate Data to Future-Proof Design Decisions in the Buildings Sector

众所周知，气候变化将对英国的建筑设计和能源使用产生重大影响。众所周知，目前的标准参考年和设计夏季年（这些是工业标准计算机模型使用的天气文件）是根据收集到1995年的数据组装而成的，甚至不能代表当前英国的气候。因此，建筑设计界高度暴露于居住者不满和可能的诉讼的可能性。此外，大多数建筑的设计都没有考虑到气候变暖带来的变化。使用概率情景的愿望并不能解决这个问题，除非创建新的参考年份，使其广泛可用，并给出使用哪些年份和何时使用/或开发全新方法的指导。即使这样，在推动适应决策方面也可能是不成功的，除非充分了解设计师如何使用这些数据，并找到一种一致的方法来检查成本的任何变化。因此，不仅需要同时研究建筑环境的概率数据集，还需要研究如何使用这些信息来驱动适应决策。在许多方面，UKCIP等组织转向概率输出提供了一个机会。使用定制的概率参考年的能力，例如天气发电机，改变了解决问题的方式，甚至改变了客户或建筑师对这些问题的看法。设想采用跨学科方法，将该项目分为七个工作包：高分辨率气候信息在建筑设计中有许多实际应用（例如between项目）。然而，缩小任何特定应用的气候模式信息的最佳方法尚不清楚。我们将同意为2010年至2080年期间创建新的参考年的程序，以每小时的时间步长。这将利用UKCIP08的概率分布函数和UKCIP08的天气生成器，但增加了风向估计。考虑一下，从理论上讲，概率气候数据如何最好地用于对内部环境和能源使用进行有用和准确的预测。3. 根据最新的概率结果，创建一个与通用建筑模拟规范兼容的大型参考年份集。4. 考虑到未来验证的复杂决策背景，该项目的另一个目标是更好地了解可能影响行业采用新技术/实践意愿的组织、社会和心理因素。研究将集中在工程师如何在实践中工作，他们在时间和知识的限制下工作，以及可能影响使用未来技术决策的激励因素。5. 有必要充分了解UKCIP08可能产生的建筑性能结果的范围，然后确定一个更小的概率参考年（PRYs）子集，这反映了在商业环境中工作的设计团队的需求和实践。（这些文件将以符合通用楼宇模拟规范要求的格式交付。）6. 考察气候变化对英国建筑设计和翻新的影响。较小的PRY子集将用于研究如何最有效地利用热质量和玻璃比例等参数来提高热舒适性，减少各种建筑形式和用途的能源需求，并进行案例研究。7. 还需要检查各种设计策略的经济成本，例如冷却成本的增加，以及为了利用概率数据而改变其工作实践的建筑实践的成本。

It is well known that climate change will have a significant impact on UK building design and energy use. It is also known, that the current standard reference year and design summer year (these are the weather files used by industry-standard computer models of buildings), being assembled from data collected only up to 1995, do not represent even the current UK climate. The building design community is therefore highly exposed to the possibility of occupant dissatisfaction and possible litigation. In addition, most buildings are not being designed to cope with increased variability in a warming climate. The desire to use probabilistic scenarios will not solve this unless either new reference years are created, made widely available and guidance given on which ones to use and when/or, totally new methods are developed. Even this is likely to be unsuccessful in driving adaptation decisions unless a full understanding of how designers might use such data is gained and a consistent way found of examining any changes in costs. There is therefore a need to simultaneously study not only probabilistic data sets for the built environment, but also how such information can be used to drive adaptation decisions. In many ways the move to probabilistic outputs by such groups as UKCIP presents an opportunity. The ability to create bespoke probabilistic reference years using, for example a weather generator, changes the way problems can be tackled and even how the client or architect thinks about such issues.An interdisciplinary approach is envisaged with the project separated into seven work packages:1. It has been identified that high resolution climate information has many practical applications for building design/(for example the BETWIXT project). However, the best way to downscale climate model information for any particular application is not clear. We will agree a process for the creation of new reference years for the period 2010 to 2080, with hourly time steps. This will make use of the UKCIP08 probability distribution functions and UKCIP08's weather generator, but with the addition of wind direction estimates.2. Consider how in theory, probabilistic climate data is best used to produce useful and accurate predictions of internal environments and energy use. 3. Create a large set of reference years compatible with common building simulation codes based on the latest probabilistic results. 4. Given the complex decision-making context of future proofing, an additional aim of the project is to better understand the organisational, social, and psychological factors that might influence the willingness of the industry to adopt new technologies/practices. Research will focus on how engineers work in practice, the time and knowledge constraints they work under, and the motivational factors that are likely to influence decisions about using future-proofing technology. 5. There is the need to fully understand the range of possible results in building performance that can be generated by UKCIP08 and then to finalise a much smaller sub-set of probabilistic reference years (PRYs), that reflect the needs and practices of design teams working within a commercial environment. (These files would be delivered in a format consistent with the requirements of common building simulation codes.) 6. Examination of the effect of climate change on UK building design and refurbishment. The smaller PRY subset would be used to examine how parameters such as thermal mass and glazed fraction can be used most effectively to improve thermal comfort and reduce energy demand for a range of built forms and uses, and produce case studies. 7. The economic costs of various design strategies will also need to be examined, for example the increased cost of cooling, as will the cost to architectural practices of altering their working practices in order to make use of probabilistic data.