Impacts of climate change on the risks of biological and chemical environmental contaminants from agriculture to human health

气候变化模型预测，到本世纪80年代，英国的平均气温将上升5摄氏度，冬季将更加潮湿，夏季将更加干燥，强降雨事件将更加频繁（UKCIP2002）。这些变化可能对人类健康产生重要影响，既改变了英国各地人类疾病的流行程度和类型，也对化学品的使用产生影响（世卫组织）。2003)。气候变化还可能改变作物病虫害的规模和种类，这可能对粮食生产产生连锁反应。新型病原体和污染物的扩散也可能增加人类、动物和植物的接触。因此，环境中病原体和污染物对人类的未来风险可能与目前的风险大不相同。我们建议举办一次研讨会，汇集评估病原体和污染物未来风险所需的广泛关键学科的专家。讲习班将包括在气候变化、人类和动物疾病、植物疾病、化学品使用、化学品接触模型、病原体接触模型、环境经济学、生态毒理学、土壤科学和毒理学方面具有专门知识的科学家。讲习班将评估气候变化对农业来源的病原体和污染物对人类健康的风险的潜在影响。技能的集成将允许考虑系统组件之间相互作用的整体系统方法。该项目的产出将是一系列基于网络的文件，报告讲习班的调查结果，并为今后的研究和管理战略提出建议。

Climate change models predict that average UK temperatures will increase by up to 5 degrees celsius by the 2080s, that winters will be wetter and summers drier and that intense rain events will be more frequent (UKCIP2002). These changes are likely to have important impacts on human health, both by changing the prevalence and types of human disease across the UK and by effects on chemical usage (WHO. 2003). Climate change is also likely to change the scale and variety of crop pests and diseases which may have a knock-on effect on food production. Dispersal of novel pathogens and contaminants could also increase human, animal and plant exposures. The future risks of pathogens and contaminants in the environment to humans could therefore be very different from current risks. We propose a workshop to bring together experts in a broad range of the key disciplines needed for estimating future risks of pathogens and contaminants. The workshop will include scientists with expertise in climate change, human and animal disease, plant disease, chemical usage, chemical exposure modelling, pathogen exposure modelling, environmental economics, ecotoxicology, soil science and toxicology. The workshop will assess the potential impacts of climate change on the risks of pathogens and contaminants of agricultural origin on human health. The integration of skills will allow an holistic systems approach that takes account of interactions between the system components. The output of the project will be a series of web-based documents reporting the findings of the workshop and providing recommendations for future research and management strategies.