The impact of climate change on habitat use: implications for predicting species' range changes

该提案福尔斯生态和水文资助倡议。CEH的主要科学计划是生物多样性，但该提案与环境信息学计划和气候变化跨领域主题密切相关。科学文献和政府报告中报告的主要变化指标是物候学（生命周期的时间，与季节变化有关）和物种分布（许多英国物种正在向北迁移和向高海拔地区迁移）的变化。然而，这些并不是气候变化影响物种的唯一方式。科学文献和保护组织在很大程度上忽视了气候驱动的物种栖息地变化。生物体所经历的温度条件因生境而异，取决于例如植被提供的遮阳或防霜水平。因此，当气候变暖时，过去过于凉爽的特定栖息地（例如，荫凉的林地）现在可能足够温暖而被占用，并且曾经适宜的栖息地可能变得太热（例如，朝南的山坡）。因此，一个物种在一个特定区域内的栖息地可能会随着气候变暖而改变，这可能会影响分布模式的变化;已经有证据表明，至少有几个物种正在以这种方式改变它们的栖息地。这项拟议的工作将首次系统地分析气候变化对整个动物群体栖息地的影响。我们将对57种英国蝴蝶的栖息地利用受气候影响的程度进行量化。我们将确定栖息地利用如何随着气候的地理变化而变化，并首次估计物种所占据的栖息地如何随着时间的推移（自1970年以来）而变化，因为气候变暖。该研究方案将利用气候变化的机会来检验一种生态假设，即物种被限制在其地理分布边缘的特定生境中，那里的气候通常是不利的。因此，我们预测，在过去的35年里，南方物种（气候正在改善）将增加它们使用的栖息地的多样性，而北方物种（气候正在恶化）将减少它们使用的栖息地的范围。我们还将收集新的实地数据，以研究栖息地利用和物种生存之间的关系，以调查影响物种栖息地协会的因素。该项目将产生具有相当实际价值的成果。它将为研究气候变化对生物多样性的影响开辟一条新的途径。它将提供英国蝴蝶分布如何变化的具体估计，因此是否需要保护更多的栖息地，以及目前正在应用的栖息地管理是否仍然适当。保护战略必须适应气候变化，但保护主义者不确定该怎么做。拟议的工作将为这一辩论提供具体的科学证据。

This proposal falls within the Ecology & Hydrology Funding Initiative. The lead CEH science programme is Biodiversity, but the proposal links strongly to the Environmental Informatics programme and the Climate Change cross-cutting theme There is an emerging consensus that the majority of animal species are responding to climate change, and that many species are at risk of extinction from climate warming. The main metrics of change reported in the scientific literature and in governmental reports are changes in the phenology (the timing of the life cycle, in relation to the changing seasons) and the distributions of species (many British species are moving northwards and to higher elevations). However, these are not the only ways that climate change affects species. The scientific literature and conservation organisations have largely ignored possible climate-driven changes in the habitat associations of species. The temperature conditions experienced by organisms vary between habitats, depending, for example, on the level of shading or protection from frost provided by the vegetation. Therefore, when the climate warms, particular habitats that were too cool in the past (e.g., shady woodlands) may now be warm enough to become occupied, and habitats that used to be favourable may become too hot (e.g., south-facing hillsides). So, the habitats that a species can occupy within a particular region may change as the climate warms and this may affect the patterns of distribution change; there is already evidence that at least a few species are changing their habitat associations in this way. The proposed work will provide the first systematic analysis of the impact of climate change on the habitat associations of an entire group of animals. We will quantify, for 57 species of British butterfly, the degree to which habitat use is modified by climate. We will determine how habitat use varies with geographical variation in the climate, and estimate for the first time how the habitats that species occupy have changed through time (since 1970), as the climate has warmed. The research programme will use the opportunity of climate change to test the ecological hypothesis that species become restricted to particular habitats at the edges of their geographic distributions, where the climate is generally unfavourable. Therefore, we predict that southern species (for which the climate is improving) will have shown increases in the variety of habitats they use over the last 35 years, whereas northern species (for which the climate is deteriorating) will have shown decreases in the range of habitats used. We will also collect new field data to examine relationships between habitat use and species survival in order to investigate the factors influencing species' habitat associations. The project will produce results of considerable practical value. It will open up a new avenue of research on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. It will provide specific estimates of how the distributions of British butterflies are changing, and therefore whether additional habitats need to be protected, and whether the habitat management that is currently being applied is still appropriate. Conservation strategies must adapt to climate change, but conservationists are uncertain about what to do. The proposed work will provide a concrete body of scientific evidence to inform this debate.