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The role of dispersal in species' ability to respond to climate change

扩散在物种应对气候变化的能力中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
NE/H00940X/1
负责人：
Christian David Thomas
金额：
$ 13.23万
依托单位：
University of York
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2010 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH00940X%2F1
关键词：
role dispersal species ability respond

项目摘要

There is an emerging consensus that many animal species are responding to current climate warming by shifting their distributions northwards. However, in order to track climate, species must be able to disperse through landscapes that have been greatly altered by human activities, and where breeding habitats are often fragmented and scattered across inhospitable urban and agricultural landscapes. Because of this human-induced habitat loss, many species with poor dispersal ability are failing to shift their ranges and are unable to reach new sites beyond their current range margin. Predicting why some species can shift their ranges in response to climate change whilst others cannot, is crucial for improving our projections of species' future distributions. This project will address this issue by investigating species' dispersal behaviour and capability. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were greatly reduced immediately, more warming would still occur due to inertia in the Earth's climate system. Thus, there is a commitment to future warming regardless of any mitigation and, in this context, adaptation measures are required urgently. One commonly suggested adaptation measure is the creation of more permeable landscapes that enable species to movement through degraded landscapes, and help them colonise new sites. However, the effectiveness of improving habitat connectivity for promoting range shifts is essentially untested. There are currently no data examining how species' flight behaviour in response to landscape features may affect their ability to disperse over longer-distances, colonise new sites, and hence shift their ranges. Yet such information will be crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of biodiversity. The proposed work will provide the first investigation of how 'everyday' local flight behaviour in fragmented landscapes translates into longer-distance dispersal and colonisation success. We will focus on butterflies and collect new field data on butterfly flight path characteristics (displacement, speed of flight, directionality, etc) within breeding habitats, within non-breeding habitats, and at habitat/non-habitat patch boundaries. We will incorporate movement information and butterfly behaviour (ovipositing, nectaring, etc) into spatially-explicit dynamic models to estimate movements in 'real' study landscapes. We will test the reliability of our models by comparing modelled movements with those obtained from independent mark-recapture data for the same species and study landscapes. We will then use validated models to examine how variation in flight behaviour and availability of breeding habitat affects the probability of movement in study landscapes. Our models will also allow us to examine the effectiveness of conservation management plans to improve landscape connectivity (Impact Plan). The project will produce results of considerable practical value, as well as addressing fundamental questions about dispersal limits to species ranges. It will open up a new avenue of research on understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Conservation strategies must include adaptation strategies, but conservationists are uncertain about what to do. The proposed work will provide a concrete body of scientific evidence to inform this debate.

一个正在形成的共识是，许多动物物种正在通过将它们的分布向北转移来应对当前的气候变暖。然而，为了跟踪气候，物种必须能够在人类活动极大改变的景观中扩散，在这些景观中，繁殖栖息地往往是分散的，分散在不适宜居住的城市和农业景观中。由于人类造成的栖息地丧失，许多扩散能力较差的物种无法转移它们的活动范围，无法到达超出它们当前活动范围边界的新地点。预测为什么一些物种可以改变它们的活动范围以应对气候变化，而另一些物种则不能，这对于改进我们对物种未来分布的预测至关重要。这个项目将通过调查物种的扩散行为和能力来解决这个问题。即使温室气体排放立即大幅减少，由于地球气候系统的惯性，更多的变暖仍然会发生。因此，无论任何缓解措施，都有对未来变暖的承诺，在这方面，迫切需要采取适应措施。一种普遍建议的适应措施是创造更具渗透性的景观，使物种能够在退化的景观中活动，并帮助它们在新的地点定居。然而，改善栖息地连通性以促进范围转移的有效性基本上是未经检验的。目前还没有数据来研究物种对地貌特征的飞行行为如何影响它们在更长距离内分散、殖民新地点的能力，从而改变它们的活动范围。然而，这些信息对于理解气候变化对生物多样性分布的影响至关重要。这项拟议中的工作将提供第一次调查，以了解在支离破碎的地貌中“日常”的当地飞行行为如何转化为更远距离的扩散和殖民成功。我们将重点研究蝴蝶，并收集有关蝴蝶在繁殖生境、非繁殖生境和生境/非生境斑块边界内的飞行路线特征(位移、飞行速度、方向性等)的新的现场数据。我们将把运动信息和蝴蝶的行为(产卵、蜜腺等)合并到空间显式的动态模型中，以估计“真实”研究场景中的运动。我们将通过将模拟的移动与同一物种的独立标记-重新捕获数据获得的移动进行比较来测试我们模型的可靠性，并研究景观。然后，我们将使用经过验证的模型来检验飞行行为的变化和繁殖栖息地的可用性如何影响研究景观中的移动概率。我们的模型还将使我们能够检查保护管理计划的有效性，以改善景观连通性(影响计划)。该项目将产生具有相当大实用价值的成果，并解决有关物种范围的扩散限制的基本问题。它将为了解和预测气候变化对生物多样性的影响开辟一条新的研究途径。保护战略必须包括适应战略，但环保主义者不确定该怎么做。拟议的工作将为这场辩论提供具体的科学证据。