Age Specific Net Migration Estimates for US Counties, 2000-2010

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目旨在构建一个公开可用的净移民估计数据集（2000-2010年），按年龄，性别，种族和西班牙裔美国所有县，并提供访问这些数据为广大社区的研究人员和从业人员通过一个互动网站进行在线映射和分析以及数据下载。由于这些估计数将使用基于2000年和2010年人口普查的人口普查和国家卫生统计中心的出生和死亡计数的前瞻性队列残差方法的生命统计版本进行，因此它们不依赖于抽样，并且将非常准确和可靠。每一组年龄-性别-种族/西班牙裔移民估计数将通过从这一时期的人口变化中减去自然增长的措施得出，正负差异归因于净移民。该项目将把这些2000年至2010年的数据与自1950年以来每十年产生的类似净移民估计数相结合，以产生一个综合的纵向数据集，提供美国每个县60年的特定年龄净移民。整个数据集将可在一个独特和可访问的网站上下载和分析，该网站允许交互式定制绘图、制图、表格构建和数据下载。 按年龄、种族/民族和性别进行的选择性移民改变了各县的人口构成，这对卫生保健的提供和人员配备、服务基础设施的发展、经济和劳动力市场条件以及生育率和死亡率结果都有重大影响。特别是，特定年龄移徙的空间分布影响社区的年龄结构，对人口老龄化、儿童健康、教育和经济福祉以及相应的保健和社会服务需求产生重大影响。通过详细的人口特征进行准确的净移民估计对于分析基于地点的特定年龄移民模式的研究以及从业者规划公共卫生服务、市政基础设施以及社区和经济发展至关重要。该项目产生的数据将对各种政策相关主题的研究至关重要，包括婴儿潮群体的迁移和社区卫生保健需求的相应变化，外迁，农村人口老龄化，西班牙裔和非洲裔美国人迁移的区域变化，高迁移地区的持续性，年轻人的迁移模式，以及移民在舒适区和退休区发展中的作用。此外，拟议的一套县级净移民估计数对应用人口学家进行小地区人口估计和预测至关重要。该项目特别重要，因为如果没有拟议的数据，就不会有可靠的2000年后的县级移民估计数，因为人口普查的长格式已经消失，美国社区调查的样本规模有限。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to construct a publicly available dataset of net migration estimates (2000-2010) by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all US counties and to provide access to these data for a broad community of researchers and practitioners through an interactive website for on-line mapping and analysis as well as data download. Because the estimates will be produced using a vital statistics version of the forward cohort residual method based on enumerations from Census 2000 and 2010 and birth and death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics, they do not rely on sampling and will be highly accurate and reliable. Each set of age-sex-race/Hispanic origin specific migration estimates will be derived by subtracting a measure of natural increase from population change over the period, with positive or negative differences being attributed to net migration. The project will integrate these 2000 to 2010 data with similar net migration estimates produced each decade since 1950 to produce an integrated longitudinal dataset providing 60 years of age-specific net migration for each US County. The entire dataset will be publically available for download and analysis on a unique and accessible website that allows for interactive custom mapping, chart-making, table construction, and data download. Selective migration by age, race/ethnicity, and sex alters counties' population composition, which has significant implications for health care provision and staffing, service infrastructure development, economic and labor market conditions, and fertility and mortality outcomes. In particular, the spatial distribution of age-specific migration influences the age structure of communities with significant implications for population aging, child health, education, and economic well-being and corresponding needs for health and social services. Accurate net migration estimates by detailed demographic characteristics are essential for research analyzing place- based age-specific migration patterns and for practitioners planning for public health services, civic infrastructure, and community and economic development. The data this project produces will be critically important for research on a variety of policy-relevant topics, including migration of the baby boom cohort and corresponding changes in community health care needs, exurbanization, the aging of the rural population, regional shifts in the migration of Hispanics and African-Americans, the persistence of high out-migration regions, young adult migration patterns, and the role of migration in the growth of amenity and retirement areas. Moreover, the proposed set of county-level net migration estimates are vital to applied demographers making small area population estimates and projections. The project is particularly important because without the proposed data, there will be no reliable county level migration estimates for the post 2000 period due to the demise of the long form of the Census and the limited sample size of the American Community Survey.