The Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the NLSY79

描述（由申请人提供）：1979年全国青年纵向调查（NLSY79）包含了迄今为止收集的关于生育意向和随后的生育行为的最详细的数据——一个由1957-64年出生的男性和女性组成的具有全国代表性的大型样本提供了回顾性的生育历史，并在1979年至2006年期间询问了他们的生育意向16次。我们利用这些显著的数据，在Quesnel-Vallee和Morgan（2003）以及Morgan和Rackin（2010）之前的研究基础上，描述了预期家庭规模（不同年龄）与最终生育率之间的对应关系。早期的研究表明，平均误差是负的——女性和男性生育的孩子比预期的要少——但这个误差的大小不大。我们还计算了“严重误差”（24岁时测量的意图和45岁时的行为之间的个体差异的绝对值）；在男女只生一个孩子的情况下，这个误差相当大。我们建议在不同的年龄（和年龄）中检查“低”和“高”“未达到目标”的相关性。这些分析与Bongaarts（2001；也见Morgan 2003）提出的低生育率的“近似决定因素”模型相一致，并为其提供了信息，该模型强调生育意图是高度偶然和高度受限的。我们还将使用这些数据来估计在生命过程中相互关联的生育率和意向变化的动态模型。具体来说，继Bollen和Curran（2004）之后，我们将估计一个“自回归潜在轨迹模型”——一个将主流方法（增长模型和自回归模型）纳入纵向数据中对生命过程过程建模的模型。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) contains the most detailed data ever collected on fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behavior -- a large nationally representative sample of men and women born 1957-64 provided retrospective fertility histories and were asked their fertility intentions 16 times between 1979 and 2006. We use these remarkable data to build on prior work by Quesnel-Vallee and Morgan (2003) and Morgan and Rackin (2010) to describe the correspondence between intended family size (at various ages) and completed fertility. Earlier work shows that the mean error is negative - women and men have fewer children than intended -- but this error is modest in size. We also calculate the "gross error" (the absolute value of the individual differences between intentions measured at age 24 and behavior at age 45); this error is quite large approximating one birth for women and men. We propose to examine the correlates of "missing the target" both "low" and "high" over various ages (and years). These analyses correspond to and inform a "proximate determinants" model of low fertility proposed by Bongaarts (2001; also see Morgan 2003) and a theoretical framework that stresses that fertility intentions are highly contingent and highly constrained. We will also use these data to estimate dynamic models of interrelated fertility and intention change over the life course. Specifically, following Bollen and Curran (2004) we will estimate an "autoregressive latent trajectory model"- a model that subsumes the dominant approaches (the growth model and the autoregressive model) to modeling life course processes in longitudinal data. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research examines women and men's actual fertility behavior vis-`- vis their intentions for children. Unintended pregnancies impact the health and well-being of women and men as well as the children they bear. Likewise, unmet desire for children can have consequences for emotional well-being and life satisfaction.