Prevalence, Predictors, and Consequences of Alcohol Use from Childhood to Midlife

描述(由申请人提供)：基于生命过程发展的观点，这项申请建议使用来自三项正在进行的具有全国代表性的出生队列研究(出生于2001年、1970年、1958年；每项n&gt；10,000)的主要和次要纵向数据来检查从青春期早期到中年期间饮酒的流行率、预测因素和后果。这一发展流行病学应用的具体目的是：(1)通过对2001年千禧年队列研究(MCS)的11岁调查开始进行第一项关于早期酒精使用和态度的前瞻性全国性研究，并用结构方程模型检验MCS和1970年英国队列研究(BCS)中关于儿童气质、认知和家庭对早期酒精使用的影响的基于理论的假设，来检验早期酒精开始流行的差异；(2)在BCS和1958年的国家儿童发展研究(NCDS)中，研究成年后工作、家庭和公民社会角色的变化如何预测饮酒和问题饮酒的波动(角色社会化假说)，使用固定效应模型控制稳定的未观察到的影响；以及(3)使用倾向评分模型记录饮酒对中年(BCS/NCDS中年龄为38/50岁)健康和社会角色的长期后果。J形关联被假设为：轻度到中度饮酒(相对于戒酒和大量饮酒)预示着更大的中年健康和角色成功(后果假说)。针对所有目标的分析将使用多来源-父母、教师、医疗、认知、自我报告-和多波纵向数据来控制儿童和青少年的社会和个人资本(选择假说)，并测试观察到的影响是否缓冲那些拥有更大资本的人(选择x角色社会化，选择x后果假说)。需要资金来增加终生饮酒开始、饮酒频率和酗酒次数、最大饮酒量、积极和消极饮酒预期、感知风险和感知到11岁同伴压力的MCS调查，并使用已经收集的从出生到7岁(MCS)、38岁(BCS)和50岁(NCDs)的纵向数据进行二级数据分析。从长远来看，该项目的目标是在青春期及以后跟踪MCS队列，并将BCS和NCDS队列跟踪到老年(随着关键的社会角色继续变化，酒精使用/滥用后果累积)，以记录人口和亚人群的模式、影响以及易受酗酒和问题饮酒影响的变化。关于整个生命过程中饮酒模式的预期国家数据，以及对潜在虚假风险和保护因素以及条件影响的适当控制，对于(A)确定易受伤害的发育先兆因素，(B)了解机制并排除虚假影响，以及(C)提供和调整旨在减少酒精滥用和依赖的危害(包括疾病、伤害和社会角色问题)的适合发展的方案和公共卫生建议，至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Based on a life course developmental perspective, this application proposes to use primary and secondary longitudinal data from three ongoing nationally representative birth cohort studies (born 2001, 1970, 1958; each n >10,000) to examine prevalence, predictors, and consequences of alcohol use from early adolescence through midlife. Specific aims of this developmental epidemiological application are to: (1) Examine variation in the prevalence of early alcohol initiation by conducting the first prospective national study of early alcohol use and attitudes starting in the age 11 survey of the 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), and testing theory- based hypotheses about child temperamental, cognitive, and family influences on early alcohol use in the MCS and the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS) with structural equation models; (2) In the BCS and 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS), examine how changes in work, family, and civic social roles across adulthood predict fluctuations in alcohol use and problem drinking (Role Socialization hypothesis), using fixed effects models to control for stable unobserved effects; and (3) Document long-term consequences of alcohol use for health and social roles in midlife (age 38/50 in BCS/NCDS) using propensity score models. J-shaped associations are hypothesized in which light-to-moderate alcohol use (relative to abstaining and to heavy drinking) predicts greater midlife health and role success (Consequences hypothesis). Analyses addressing all aims will use multisource-parent, teacher, medical, cognitive, self- report-and multi-wave longitudinal data to control for child and adolescent social and personal capital (Selection hypothesis) and test whether observed effects are buffered for those with greater capital (Selection x Role Socialization, Selection x Consequences hypotheses). Funds are requested to add measures of lifetime alcohol initiation, frequency of use and binge drinking, maximum quantity, positive and negative alcohol expectancies, perceived risk, and perceived peer pressure to age 11 MCS surveys, and to conduct secondary data analyses using already- collected longitudinal data from birth to age 7 (MCS), age 38 (BCS), and age 50 (NCDS). Long- term, the project aims to follow the MCS cohort through adolescence and beyond and the BCS and NCDS cohorts into older adulthood (as pivotal social roles continue to change and alcohol use/abuse consequences accumulate) to document population and sub-population patterns, effects, and variation in vulnerability to heavy and problem drinking. Prospective national data on drinking patterns across the life course, with appropriate controls for potentially spurious risk and protective factors and for conditional effects, are vital for (a) identifying developmental antecedents of vulnerability, (b) understanding mechanisms and ruling out spurious effects, and (c) informing and tailoring developmentally-appropriate programs and public health recommendations designed to decrease harms of alcohol abuse and dependence including disease, injury, and social role problems.