Neighborhood interventions in alcohol-related homicide: a systems approach

描述（由申请人提供）：黑人和西班牙裔人比非西班牙裔白人（NHWs）更有可能死于与酒精有关的凶杀案，尽管与NHWs相比，他们不太可能大量饮酒。几乎没有进行流行病学研究来确定可以采取什么措施来减少这种差异。我们认为，与酒精有关的杀人在种族/少数民族的不成比例的风险可能与种族/少数民族的系统性住宅隔离到经济上处于不利地位的社区，高酒精出口密度，低集体效能，降低质量的医疗保健。我们建议使用基于代理的模型（ABM）进行计算机模拟的酒精使用，暴力犯罪和受害的社区，并模拟潜在的影响，在附近的酒精出口密度和医疗保健的访问可能对种族差异的酒精相关的杀人。通过允许我们模拟反事实的情况下，ABMs克服了NHWs，西班牙裔和黑人的个人选择到非可比的社区放置在观察性社区研究的因果推理的限制。在检查和测试这些假设的模拟干预措施，我们也将纳入社交网络的信息，因为与酒精出口集中的街道和酒吧消费的模式可能会鼓励与高风险饮酒者谁也表现出暴力行为的社会关系的形成。具体来说，我们将研究是否影响的广度和强度的社会关系的模拟邻里干预措施，在减少种族/民族差异与酒精有关的凶杀案的有效性。ABM将包括与纽约市的人口构成相匹配的代理人，并将其安排在划分为社区的网格中，并通过基于地理的参数评估复杂的社会关系网络，社区特征，酒精使用和滥用以及受害和犯罪。该项目的重点是模拟纽约市的社区;它将告知NIH R 01提案使用复杂系统的方法。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to die from alcohol-related homicides than non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), despite being less likely to drink heavily compared to NHWs. Little epidemiologic research has been conducted to determine what can be done to reduce such disparities. We propose that the disproportionate risk for alcohol-related homicide among racial/ethnic minorities may be related to the systematic residential segregation of racial/ethnic minorities into economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with high alcohol outlet density, low collective efficacy, and reduced quality health care access. We propose to use agent-based models (ABM) to conduct computer simulations of alcohol use, violent perpetration and victimization in neighborhoods, and to simulate the potential impact that changes in neighborhood alcohol outlet density and health care access could have on racial disparities in alcohol-related homicide. By allowing us to simulate counterfactual situations, ABMs overcome the limitations that individual selection of NHWs, Hispanics and Blacks into non-comparable neighborhoods place on causal inference in observational neighborhood studies. In examining and testing these hypothetical simulated interventions, we will also incorporate information on social networks, as the patterns of street and bar consumption associated with concentration of alcohol outlets may encourage the formation of social ties with high-risk drinkers who also exhibit violent behavior. Specifically, w will examine whether the breadth and strength of social ties influences the efficacy of simulated neighborhood interventions in reducing racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol-related homicides. The ABM will include agents matched to the demographic composition of New York City and arranged in a grid divided into neighborhoods, informed by empirically-based parameters assessing a complex network of social ties, neighborhood characteristics, alcohol use and misuse, and victimization and perpetration. The project focuses on simulating NYC neighborhoods; it will inform an NIH R01 proposal to use complex systems approaches.