Using Policy Variation to Identify and Estimate a Structural Model of Retirement

项目描述（由申请人提供）：本项目旨在以经济学领域已有的退休文献为基础，采用行政数据、准实验变量和结构估计相结合的独特方法，分析退休福利的劳动力供给效应。标准的经济理论强调了退休福利可以影响退休决定的两个渠道：通过终身收入的变化（收入效应）和通过继续工作的边际激励的变化（价格效应）。区分这些影响对于理解美国和其他国家拟议的社会保障改革对福利和效率的影响非常重要。然而，由于先前的研究缺乏足够的数据或识别所需的变化，这些影响尚未得到实证证实。我们对收入和价格影响的单独识别是基于1984年至2003年奥地利多次国家养老金改革的变化。这种国家层面的差异与指导美国和其他国家的社会保障改革最为相关。这些改革在养老金财富和继续工作的边际激励方面产生了多重独立的变化，从而可以确定收入和价格的影响。以前的工作依赖于观测数据，而不是这种政策变化，因此很难将预测解释为因果关系。除了克服这个困难之外，我们将把这种变化嵌入到一个结构模型中，而不是一个简化的形式上下文中。因此，我们的经验策略强调如何使用准实验变化来识别结构参数，而不是简化形式系数。我们将估计一个允许财富积累的退休动态规划模型。联合建立储蓄和退休决策模型对于真实地捕捉退休福利的劳动力供给效应非常重要。本项目将强调使用准实验变量进行结构估计的重要性，并阐明储蓄的建模假设如何影响退休福利的估计收入和价格效应。公共卫生相关性：本项目将采用行政数据、准实验变量和结构估计的独特组合来研究退休福利的劳动力供给效应。虽然以前的研究受到较小的样本量和观察数据的限制，但我们将使用这些数据和变化来识别和估计具有内生储蓄的退休动态规划模型。该项目将强调准实验变量对估计的重要性，并阐明储蓄的建模假设如何影响退休福利的收入和价格效应的估计。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to build on the existing retirement literature within economics by using a unique combination of administrative data, quasi-experimental variation and structural estimation to analyze the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. Standard economic theory highlights two channels through which retirement benefits can affect retirement decisions: through changes in lifetime income (income effect) and through changes in the marginal incentives for continuing work (price effect). Distinguishing between these effects is important for understanding the welfare and efficiency consequences of proposed social security reforms in the United States and other countries as well. However, these effects have not yet been empirically established since previous studies have lacked sufficient data or variation necessary for identification. Our separate identification of both the income and price effects is based on variation from multiple, national pension reforms in Austria between 1984 and 2003. This national level of variation is most relevant for guiding social security reform in the United States and other countries. These reforms create multiple independent changes in pension wealth and the marginal incentives for continuing work, thereby allowing for identification of the income and price effects. Previous work has relied on observational data rather than such policy variation thereby making it difficult to interpret the predictions as causal effects. In addition to overcoming this difficulty, we will embed this variation in a structural model rather than a reduced form context. Thus, our empirical strategy emphasizes how quasi-experimental variation can be used to identify structural parameters rather than reduced form coefficients. We will estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that allows for wealth accumulation. Jointly modeling savings and retirement decisions is important to capture realistically the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. This project will highlight the significance of using quasi-experimental variation for structural estimation and elucidate how modeling assumption for savings affect the estimated income and price effects from retirement benefits. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will use a unique combination of administrative data, quasi-experimental variation and structural estimation to study the labor supply effects of retirement benefits. While previous studies have been limited by smaller sample sizes and observational data, we will use this data and variation to identify and estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement with endogenous savings. This project will highlight the importance of quasi-experimental variation for estimation and also elucidate how modeling assumptions for savings affect estimates of the income and price effects of retirement benefits.