Using Small-Area Estimates of Firearm Ownership to Investigate Violence Disparities and Firearm Policy Effects

项目总结/摘要 枪支暴力造成的社会、经济和人类代价，包括每年近4万人死亡， 分布不均，某些人口亚群受到枪支杀人的影响不成比例 还有自杀尽管枪支暴力的规模和范围很大，但现有数据衡量 随着时间的推移，各人口阶层的枪支拥有量削弱了我们评估这些健康驱动因素的能力。 这是一个很好的机会，可以评估枪支安全政策和干预措施。因此，先前的研究检查了 在与性别或种族相关的暴力暴露，或评估枪支安全政策的有效性， 通常忽视了各人口阶层之间枪支拥有率的巨大差异，或者依赖于薄弱的 横截面分析与高度汇总，国家一级的枪支所有权的措施。这些程序 这使得对不同枪支暴力风险和政策因果影响的许多分析变得模糊不清。 这个项目属于资助方案A的福尔斯，将采用小面积估算技术， 在按性别、种族、婚姻状况、性别、 1980-2020年期间的地位、城市化和国家。这些措施将用于 调查死亡率差异在多大程度上与枪支使用率差异有关 所有权，利用我们数据的纵向性质，更好地描述 枪支所有权和枪支死亡率结果。调查结果将告知枪支所有权如何在不同的地区变化 人口，社区和时间;以及这种变化如何与不同的枪支杀人和自杀有关 亚组之间的风险。更好地理解这些关系对于发展和 实施有效的枪支安全干预措施（目标一）。最后，我们将使用我们的新措施， 对政策的影响进行创新性的、更加敏感和准确的评估 旨在提高枪支安全性。通过允许政策影响取决于枪支拥有量， 在大量的人口阶层中，我们的方法提高了对政策影响的因果识别， 这些法律针对枪支拥有者的安全行为，它更好地涵盖了州际和次州 死亡率结果的可变性（目标二）。 因此，本研究通过提供新颖且严格的 关于枪支所有权的人口和地理趋势的证据， 枪支所有权的变化与枪支死亡人数的变化之间的关系， 枪支安全政策。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The social, economic and human costs of firearm violence, including nearly 40,000 deaths annually, are unevenly distributed, with certain population subgroups disproportionately impacted by firearms homicides and suicides. Despite the scale and scope of firearm violence, serious gaps in available data measuring firearm ownership across population strata over time undermine our ability to evaluate drivers of these health disparities or to evaluate firearm safety policies and interventions. As such, prior research examining changes in violence exposure associated with gender or race, or evaluating the efficacy of gun safety policies, has typically ignored large differences in firearm ownership rates across population strata, or has relied on weak cross-sectional analyses with highly aggregated, state-level measures of firearm ownership. These procedures render many analyses of differential firearms violence risk and of the causal effects of policies ambiguous. This project, which falls under Funding Option A, will use small-area estimation techniques to generate informative estimates of household firearm ownership within strata defined by gender, race, marital status, urbanicity, and state, over the period 1980-2020. These constructed measures will be used to investigate the extent to which mortality disparities are associated with differences in rates of firearm ownership, leveraging the longitudinal nature of our data to better describe dynamics over time between firearm ownership and firearm mortality outcomes. Findings will inform how firearm ownership varies across populations, communities, and time; and how this variation relates to differential firearm homicide and suicide risk among subgroups. Better understanding these relationships is critical to the development and implementation of effective gun safety interventions (Objective One). Finally, we will use our new measures of firearm ownership to conduct innovative and more sensitive and precise evaluations of the effects of policies designed to improve firearm safety. By allowing policy impacts to depend on the levels of firearm ownership across a large number of population strata, our approach improves causal identification of policy effects for those laws that target the safety behavior of gun owners, and it better captures both inter-state and sub-state variability in mortality outcomes (Objective Two). This study thus addresses both objectives of RFA-CE-20-006 by providing novel and rigorous evidence on demographic and geographic trends in firearm ownership, on potentially heterogeneous relationships between changes in firearm ownership and changes in firearm deaths, and on the effectiveness of gun safety policies.