Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats

描述(由申请人提供)：这份关于匹兹堡MIDAS卓越中心(U54)的建议书建立在我们在NIGMS传染病代理建模研究“MIDAS”计划中经过验证的生产力记录的基础上。在之前的合作中，我们成功地推进了流行病建模的理论和实践。我们开发了具有威胁性的禽流感大流行的大规模基于代理人的模拟，使用我们的模型评估潜在的疫情控制策略，并就公共卫生政策向美国政府和世卫组织的最高层提供建议。我们迈达斯团队的高级调查人员-伯克、弗格森和爱泼斯坦-构成了拟议中的卓越中心的核心。英才中心内的研究分为七个项目小组，每个小组侧重于计算建模中的一个具体组成部分问题；所有七个项目都是互补的，没有重复。其中四个项目(参数、行为、进化和环境)寻求对传染病流行的动态过程和子过程进行建模，另外三个项目(决策、准备、应用建模)寻求提高模型在公共卫生政策决策中的效用。这个卓越中心的一个独特之处在于它的跨学科特性；有行为科学家、心理学家、律师和公共卫生从业人员的积极参与，并与县(阿勒格尼)、州(宾夕法尼亚州)和国家(CDC)的公共卫生机构进行了强有力的合作。三个核心(行政、教育、培训和推广；计算)为整个中心提供支持。主要人员来自匹兹堡大学、卡内基梅隆大学、匹兹堡超级计算中心、约翰霍普金斯大学、布鲁金斯学会和帝国理工学院，这些都是杰出的研究机构。我们已做好充分准备，在更新后的Midas网络中继续保持领先地位，我们不仅在我们自己的卓越中心内，而且在整个Midas网络结构中，坚定地致力于合作研究。公共卫生相关性：匹兹堡迈达斯卓越中心的使命是保护美利坚合众国和全球社会免受传染病的威胁。我们将通过提高我国预测潜在流行病的能力，制定防止病原微生物出现或重新出现的战略，并在必要时迅速做出反应，减轻疫情蔓延的影响，从而做到这一点。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal for a Pittsburgh MIDAS Center of Excellence (U54) builds upon our proven track record of productivity in the NIGMS Modeling of Infectious Disease Agent Study "MIDAS" program. In that prior collaborative effort we successfully advanced both the theory and practice of epidemic modeling. We developed large scale agent-based simulations of a threatening avian influenza pandemic, used our models to evaluate potential epidemic control strategies, and advised the highest levels of the US Government and the WHO on public health policy. The senior investigators from our MIDAS team - Burke, Ferguson, and Epstein - constitute the nucleus of this proposed Center of Excellence. Research within the Center of Excellence is divided into seven project teams, each focusing on a specific component problem in computational modeling; all seven projects are complementary without duplication. Four of the projects (Parameters, Behavior, Evolution, and Environment) seek to model the dynamical processes and subprocesses of infectious disease epidemics, while three others (Decisions, Preparedness, Applied Modeling) seek to improve the utility of models in public health policy decision-making. A unique feature of this Center of Excellence is its exceptionally interdisciplinary character; there is vigorous participation of behavioral scientists, psychologists, lawyers, and public health practitioners, and there are strong collaborations with public health agencies at the county (Allegheny), state (Pennsylvania) and national (CDC) levels. Three cores (Administrative; Education, Training, & Outreach; Computing) provide support across the Center. Key personnel are drawn from the University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon University, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, Johns Hopkins University, the Brookings Institution, and Imperial College, all outstanding research institutions. We are well positioned to provide continued leadership in the renewed MIDAS network, and we are deeply committed to collaborative research not only within our own Center of Excellence but across the entire MIDAS network structure. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The mission of the Pittsburgh MIDAS Center of Excellence is to protect the United States of America and the global community against communicable infectious disease threats. We will do this by improving our nation's ability to predict potential epidemics, to devise strategies to prevent the emergence or re-emergence of pathogenic microbes, and to respond rapidly - when necessary - to mitigate the impact of a spreading epidemic.