Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats

描述(由申请人提供)：这项建议建立在我们作为NIGMS传染病制剂建模研究计划中已建立的卓越中心的已证明的生产力跟踪记录的基础上。到目前为止，我们的英才中心已经在同行评议的期刊上准备并发表了174篇手稿；主办了五次重要的跨学科会议；向95名不同的学生介绍了计算建模方面的研究和培训机会；开发了10种创新的计算方法、工具或平台；为县(阿勒格尼)、州(宾夕法尼亚州)、国家(CDC、ASPR、BARDA)和国际(WHO)的卫生官员提供了宝贵的、及时的决策支持。匹兹堡的私家侦探和Key Partnering的高级调查人员 各机构(卡内基梅隆大学、约翰霍普金斯大学和帝国理工学院)组成了一支经验丰富的成熟团队 事实证明，在整个Midas网络中，建模人员彼此之间以及与同事之间高度协作。英才中心的研究计划包括五个相互作用的研究项目，重点是(1)数据和参数；(2)行为动力学；(3)进化动力学；(4)模型和预测；(5)政策方法。所有五个项目作为公共卫生决策支持信息流“元模型”的步骤相互关联。五个研究项目由在各自领域具有高度专业知识的杰出研究院士领导。预期的研究项目回报包括加深对疫情动态的机械性理解，提高疫情预测的准确性，以及改进评估信息价值的方法，以增强对公共卫生决策的信心。英才中心还包括四个辅助部分：政策研究；软件和计算；培训、外联和多样性；以及行政。每个辅助部分都由一名非常合格的专家领导，旨在与研究项目的工作互动并为其提供便利。这个卓越中心的一个独特之处是其显著的跨学科特征，医生、流行病学家、行为科学家、微生物遗传学家、计算机科学家、卫生政策专家、律师和公共卫生从业人员积极参与。我们已做好充分准备，在更新后的Midas网络中继续保持领先地位，我们不仅在我们自己的卓越中心内，而且在整个Midas网络结构中，坚定地致力于合作研究。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal builds upon our proven track record of productivity as an established Center of Excellence within the NIGMS Modeling of Infectious Disease Agent Study program. To date, our Center of Excellence has prepared and published 174 manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals; hosted five major trans-disciplinary conferences; introduced 95 diverse students to research and training opportunities in computational modeling; developed ten innovative computational methods, tools or platforms; and provided valuable, timely decision support to health officials at the county (Allegheny), state (Pennsylvania), national (CDC, ASPR, BARDA), and international (WHO) levels. The PI at Pittsburgh and the senior investigators at key partnering institutions (Carnegie Mellon, Johns Hopkins, and Imperial) form an established team of experienced modelers who are proven to be highly collaborative with each other and with colleagues across the entire MIDAS network. The Center of Excellence research plan consists of five interacting research projects which focus on (1) Data and Parameters; (2) Behavioral Dynamics; (3) Evolutionary Dynamics; (4) Models and Forecasts; and (5) Policy Methods. All five projects are linked to each other as steps along a public health decision-support "metamodel" of information flow. The five research projects are led by outstanding research academicians who are highly expert in their respective areas. Expected research project pay-offs include deeper mechanistic understanding of epidemic dynamics, increased accuracy of epidemic forecasting, and improved methods to assess the value of information required for greater confidence in public health decision-making. The Center of Excellence also houses four supporting components, on Policy Studies; Software and Computing; Training, Outreach, and Diversity; and Administration. Each supporting component is led by an exceptionally well-qualified expert and is designed to interact with and facilitate the work of the research projects. A unique feature of this Center of Excellence is its remarkably interdisciplinary character, with vigorous participation by physicians, epidemiologists, behavioral scientists, microbial geneticists, computer scientists, health policy experts, lawyers, and public health practitioners. We are well positioned to provide continued leadership in the renewed MIDAS network, and we are deeply committed to collaborative research not only within our own Center Excellence but across the entire MIDAS network structure.