Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats

传染病威胁的计算模型

• 批准号: 9515001
• 负责人: DONALD SCOTT BURKE
• 金额: $ 77.23万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-07-24 至 2020-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9515001
• 关键词: Americas; Area; Behavioral; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Centers of Research Excellence; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Computer Simulation; Computer software; Computers; Computing Methodologies; County; Data; Decision Making; Education and Outreach; Epidemic; Epidemiologist; Health; Health Policy; Institution; International; Journals; Lawyers; Leadership; Link; Manuscripts; Methods; Microbe; Mission; Modeling; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; Pathogenicity; Peer Review; Pennsylvania; Physicians; Policies; Positioning Attribute; Productivity; Public Health; Publishing; Research; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Research Training; Scientist; Structure; Students; Time; United States; Work; design; experience; improved; infectious disease model; innovation; microbial; prevent; programs; public health relevance; symposium; tool; training opportunity

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal builds upon our proven track record of productivity as an established Center of Excellence within the NIGMS Modeling of Infectious Disease Agent Study program. To date, our Center of Excellence has prepared and published 174 manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals; hosted five major trans-disciplinary conferences; introduced 95 diverse students to research and training opportunities in computational modeling; developed ten innovative computational methods, tools or platforms; and provided valuable, timely decision support to health officials at the county (Allegheny), state (Pennsylvania), national (CDC, ASPR, BARDA), and international (WHO) levels. The PI at Pittsburgh and the senior investigators at key partnering institutions (Carnegie Mellon, Johns Hopkins, and Imperial) form an established team of experienced modelers who are proven to be highly collaborative with each other and with colleagues across the entire MIDAS network. The Center of Excellence research plan consists of five interacting research projects which focus on (1) Data and Parameters; (2) Behavioral Dynamics; (3) Evolutionary Dynamics; (4) Models and Forecasts; and (5) Policy Methods. All five projects are linked to each other as steps along a public health decision-support "metamodel" of information flow. The five research projects are led by outstanding research academicians who are highly expert in their respective areas. Expected research project pay-offs include deeper mechanistic understanding of epidemic dynamics, increased accuracy of epidemic forecasting, and improved methods to assess the value of information required for greater confidence in public health decision-making. The Center of Excellence also houses four supporting components, on Policy Studies; Software and Computing; Training, Outreach, and Diversity; and Administration. Each supporting component is led by an exceptionally well-qualified expert and is designed to interact with and facilitate the work of the research projects. A unique feature of this Center of Excellence is its remarkably interdisciplinary character, with vigorous participation by physicians, epidemiologists, behavioral scientists, microbial geneticists, computer scientists, health policy experts, lawyers, and public health practitioners. We are well positioned to provide continued leadership in the renewed MIDAS network, and we are deeply committed to collaborative research not only within our own Center Excellence but across the entire MIDAS network structure.

描述（由申请人提供）：该提案建立在我们作为NIGMS传染病病原体研究项目建模中的卓越中心的生产力的良好记录基础上。到目前为止，我们的卓越中心已经编写并在同行评审期刊上发表了174篇手稿;举办了五次大型跨学科会议;介绍了95名不同的学生在计算建模方面的研究和培训机会;开发了十种创新的计算方法，工具或平台;并为县（阿勒格尼）、州（宾夕法尼亚州）、国家（CDC、ASPR、巴尔达）和国际（WHO）各级卫生官员提供了宝贵、及时的决策支持。匹兹堡的PI和Key Partnering的高级调查员 机构（卡内基梅隆大学，约翰霍普金斯，和帝国）形成了一个经验丰富的团队， 这些建模人员被证明彼此之间以及与整个MIDAS网络中的同事之间具有高度协作性。卓越中心的研究计划包括五个相互作用的研究项目，重点是（1）数据和参数;（2）行为动力学;（3）进化动力学;（4）模型和预测;和（5）政策方法。所有五个项目都相互联系，作为公共卫生决策支持信息流“元模型”的沿着步骤。这五个研究项目由杰出的研究院士领导，他们在各自领域具有很高的专家水平。预期的研究项目回报包括对流行病动态的更深入的机械理解，提高流行病预测的准确性，以及改进评估信息价值的方法，以提高对公共卫生决策的信心。卓越中心还设有四个支持组件，政策研究;软件和计算;培训，外联和多样性;和管理。每个支持部分都由一位非常合格的专家领导，旨在与研究项目的工作互动并促进其工作。该卓越中心的一个独特之处在于其显着的跨学科特征，医生、流行病学家、行为科学家、微生物遗传学家、计算机科学家、卫生政策专家、律师和公共卫生从业者的积极参与。我们有能力在更新的MIDAS网络中提供持续的领导地位，我们不仅在我们自己的卓越中心内，而且在整个MIDAS网络结构中致力于合作研究。

项目成果

A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248
• 发表时间: 2017-03
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Farrow DC;Brooks LC;Hyun S;Tibshirani RJ;Burke DS;Rosenfeld R
• 通讯作者: Rosenfeld R

Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.08.001
• 发表时间: 2013-12
• 期刊: EPIDEMICS
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Ali, Sheikh Taslim;Kadi, A. S.;Ferguson, Neil M.
• 通讯作者: Ferguson, Neil M.

Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart.

• DOI: 10.2807/ese.18.24.20503-en
• 发表时间: 2013-06
• 期刊: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
• 作者: S. Cauchemez;M. D. Kerkhove;S. Riley;C. Donnelly;C. Fraser;N. Ferguson

Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States.

• DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa0905498
• 发表时间: 2009-12-31
• 期刊: The New England journal of medicine
• 作者: Cauchemez S;Donnelly CA;Reed C;Ghani AC;Fraser C;Kent CK;Finelli L;Ferguson NM
• 通讯作者: Ferguson NM

Dengue diversity across spatial and temporal scales: Local structure and the effect of host population size.

空间和时间尺度之间的登革率多样性：局部结构以及宿主种群规模的影响。

• DOI: 10.1126/science.aaj9384
• 发表时间: 2017-03-24
• 期刊: Science (New York, N.Y.)
• 作者: Salje H;Lessler J;Maljkovic Berry I;Melendrez MC;Endy T;Kalayanarooj S;A-Nuegoonpipat A;Chanama S;Sangkijporn S;Klungthong C;Thaisomboonsuk B;Nisalak A;Gibbons RV;Iamsirithaworn S;Macareo LR;Yoon IK;Sangarsang A;Jarman RG;Cummings DA
• 通讯作者: Cummings DA