Assessment of interventions for controlling pandemic influenza and determining data needs to inform these assessments

这项研究的目的是通过比较各种可用的控制策略在减少疾病传播方面的有效性，帮助我们为流感大流行做好准备。可用的控制干预措施包括：减少我们与他人的密切接触者数量，在确诊病例后隔离病例，关闭学校，隔离家庭，隔离已知接触过病例的个人，以及使用抗病毒药物治疗和保护有感染风险的人。我们将对这些控制措施进行比较，同时适当考虑到这些干预措施的能力和可用资源，以及维持基本服务的必要性。将使用描述感染传播的数学模型进行比较。将利用所有现有数据和专家咨询意见，确保比较使用的模型切合实际。我们还将使用这些模型来确定有限的抗病毒药物的最佳用途，直到疫苗问世。我们会考虑如果出现对抗病毒药物产生抗药性的病毒株，应如何改变控制策略。此外，我们将确定在大流行的早期阶段需要收集哪些数据，以帮助我们确定抗病毒药物的最佳使用，新疫苗的最佳使用，并检查对抗病毒药物的耐药性的发展。

The aim of this study is to help us prepare for a pandemic of influenza by comparing how effective the various available control strategies are at reducing transmission of the disease. The available control interventions include: reducing the number of close contacts we make with others, isolating cases after they are diagnosed, closing schools, quarantining households, quarantining individuals who are known to have been exposed to a case, and using antiviral drugs treat and protect people at risk of being infected. We will compare these control measures by taking due account of the ability and resources available for these interventions, and with regard to the need to maintain essential services. The comparisons will be made using mathematical models that describe the transmission of the infection. All available data and advice from experts will be used to ensure that realistic models are used for the comparisons. We will also use the models to determine the best use of the limited antiviral drugs available, until a vaccine becomes available. We will consider how the control strategy should be changed if a strain develops that is resistant to the antiviral drugs. In addition, we will determine what data need to be collected during the early stages of a pandemic to help us to determine the best use of the antiviral drugs, the best use of a new vaccine and to check on the development of resistance to the antiviral drugs.