Mathematical approaches for controlling emerging and re-emerging diseases

这一建议的目的是设计一个数学模型框架，以评估控制某些对公共卫生具有重要意义的人类疾病传播的战略，特别是儿童疾病、病媒传播疾病（例如登革热和疟疾）、性传播疾病（例如艾滋病毒）、呼吸道疾病（例如季节性和大流行性流感、结核病、严重急性呼吸系统综合症）和其他疫苗可预防的疾病(例如白喉、肺炎球菌病、轮状病毒、黄热病、伤寒、霍乱)。虽然其中许多疾病是可以控制和/或治疗的，但它们仍然是全球的主要威胁。例如，世界卫生组织的数据显示，目前全球有近4600万人感染艾滋病毒，到目前为止，这种疾病已夺去了2000多万人的生命。我打算开发一个数学建模框架来研究上述疾病的传播和控制动力学。这些模型将使用现有数据进行校准，然后将用于评估各种控制策略，旨在确定针对每一类疾病的最有效策略。要考虑的主要战略包括使用疫苗、药物治疗以及检疫和隔离。这项基础研究的新颖性包括设计现实模型，以深入了解各种人类疾病的传播动态和控制。还将设计控制措施，以阻止资源贫乏国家的疾病传播，这些国家是全球疾病负担最重的国家。这项工作将在设计合适的疫苗和药物，以及设计新的数学方法来分析我将要处理的相对较大的模型方面具有重要的应用。

The aim of this proposal is to design a mathematical modelling framework for assessing control strategies against the spread of some classes of human diseases of public health importance, notably childhood diseases, vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue and malaria), sexually-transmitted diseases (e.g., HIV), respiratory diseases (e.g., seasonal and pandemic influenza, tuberculosis, SARS) and other vaccine-preventable diseases (e.g., diphtheria, pneumococcal disease, rotavirus, yellow fever, typhoid, cholera).   Although many of these diseases are controllable and/or treatable, they continue to be major global menace.  For instance, figures from the World Health Organization show that nearly 46 million people currently live with HIV globally, and the disease has so far claimed the lives of over 20 million people.    I intend to develop a mathematical modeling framework for studying the transmission and control dynamics of the above classes of diseases.  The models, which will be calibrated using available data, will then be used to evaluate various control strategies aimed at determining the most effective one(s) for each class of diseases.   The main strategies to be considered include the use of vaccine, drug treatment and quarantine and isolation.  The novelty of this basic research includes the design of realistic models for gaining insights into the transmission dynamics and control of classes of human diseases.  Control measures for halting disease spread in resource-poor nations, which accounts for the highest disease burden globally, would also be designed.  The work would have important applications in the design of suitable vaccines and drugs, as well as the design of new mathematical methods for analyzing the relatively large models I will be dealing with.