Data, uncertainty, and ecological forecasting of biological invasions

生物入侵的基本过程对物种出现、殖民和生物多样性也很重要，这是生态学的三个中心主题。虽然物种的扩散是自然发生的，但人类活动增加了扩散的范围和速度，以至于全球正在发生变化，自然和人类系统无法适应。科学共识和世界各国政府都同意，入侵物种--特别是那些从其他地方引进的造成危害的物种--是目前环境的优先事项。入侵物种现在是全球生物多样性丧失、环境变化和经济损失的主要原因（例如，美国的估计成本估计为1370亿美元/年）。尽管入侵很重要，但我们通常无法预测哪些物种会入侵，何时何地入侵，也无法预测它们会对环境产生什么影响。因此，很难知道哪些管理行动是有道理的，哪些是没有道理的。生态学可能是解决入侵物种问题的关键，但首先，我们需要弥合生态理论与真实的世界条件之间的差距，在那里，不确定性很高，数据限制是常态。我将使用数学模型，实地研究和实验室实验的组合来弥合这一差距。我将发展一套理论，以改善对哪些物种应该入侵以及它们应该在哪里入侵的预测。我将使用刺水蚤（Bythotrephes）入侵者和安大略内陆湖泊作为我的测试系统，但理论方法的发展将推广到其他生态系统。我的研究计划将通过开发处理真实的系统中大规模问题的稀疏数据和高不确定性所需的方法来推进生态学。这些是目前限制入侵生物学的一些主要问题，可以说，也限制了生态学的大多数其他领域。此外，我的工作将使我们能够直接监测和生物入侵的风险评估工作，它们将提供决策理论框架所需的生态信息，并将有助于指导政策。

The processes underlying biological invasions are also important for species occurrences, colonization and biodiversity - three central themes in ecology. Although species dispersal occurs naturally, human activity has increased the extent and rate of dispersal to such a degree that global changes are occurring and natural and human systems are unable to adapt. Scientific consensus and governments worldwide have agreed that invasive species - specifically, those species introduced from other places that cause harm - is currently an environmental priority. Invasive species are now a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, environmental change, and economic damages (e.g., the estimated cost to the US is estimated at $137 billion/yr). Despite the importance of invasions, we typically cannot forecast which species will invade, where or when they will do so, nor what effect they will have on the environment. Thus, it is difficult to know which management actions are warranted and which are not. Ecology could be pivotal for addressing the invasive species issue, but first, we need to bridge the gap between ecological theory and real world conditions, where uncertainty is high, and data limitations are the norm. I will use a combination of mathematical models, field studies, and lab experiments to bridge this gap. I will develop a body of theory to improve predictions about which species should invade, and where they should do so. I will use the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes) invader and the Ontario inland lakes as my test system, but theoretic approaches developed will be generalizable to other ecosystems. My research program will advance ecology by developing the approaches needed to deal with sparse data and high uncertainty for large-scale problem in real systems. These are some of the major issues currently limiting invasion biology and, arguably, most other fields in ecology. Further, my work will allow us to direct monitoring and risk assessments efforts for biological invasions; they will provide the ecological information needed in decision theoretic frameworks and will be useful to guide policy.