Assessment of Water Availability in the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin over the past 2 Millennia

预测未来的水供应是水管理的主要挑战之一。该项目的目标是提供安大略西北部温尼伯河流域（WRDB）水资源长期可用性的数据，该地区严重依赖水资源进行水力发电，以及满足其他社会需求。为了对未来的极端情况做好准备，长期规划必须基于对水供应历史低点的现实估计。然而，这些长期低点目前仅基于80-100年的仪器记录，并不能代表20世纪之前发生的极端事件的全部范围。虽然加拿大许多地区预计在CO2增加的情况下降水量会增加，但根据模式预测，未来降水量的时空分布存在很大的不确定性。来自WRDB实验湖区（ELA）的经验数据表明，如果降水量没有大幅增加，湖泊水位，河流流量和地下水位都会在气候变暖的情况下下降。我们最近从ELA的发现表明，水的可用性比世纪的任何极端都要低得多。我们建议的研究将提供信息的水可用性在WRDB的空间覆盖范围在过去的~2000年（一个时期的气候过程的影响类似于今天），以确定频率，幅度和持续时间的水可用性的过去低点，以及这些低点是否已发生同步跨WRDB。对水资源极端情况进行更充分的评估，将使水资源管理人员能够更好地为未来制定适应战略。本提案中制定的方法将适用于加拿大许多其他地区。在这个多学科领域接受培训的三名硕士学生将能够在多种领域工作（例如，科学教师、保护当局、公园经理、环境咨询公司、水管理职位）。在环境评估、特别是在水管理方面，将继续大量需要训练有素的人员。

Projecting future water availability is one of the main challenges of water management. The objectives of this project are to provide data on long-term patterns in water availability from the Winnipeg River Drainage Basin (WRDB) in northwestern Ontario, a region which is heavily reliant on water resources for hydrological power generation, as well as other societal demands. In order to prepare for future extremes, long-term planning must be based on realistic estimates of historical lows in water availability. However, these long-term lows are currently only based on the 80-100 year instrumental records, which are not representative of the full range in extremes that occurred prior to the 20th century. Although many regions of Canada are projected to have increased precipitation under increasing CO2 conditions, there is great uncertainty in both the temporal and spatial distribution of future precipitation based on model projections. Empirical data from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in the WRDB suggests that without a substantial increase in precipitation lake levels, stream flows and groundwater levels will all decline under a warmer climate. Our recent findings from the ELA, suggests that water availability has been at much lower extremes than any seen during the 20th century. Our proposed research will provide information on the spatial coverage of water availability within the WRDB over the past ~2000 years (a period influenced by climatic processes similar to today) to determine the frequency, magnitude and duration of past lows in water availability, and whether these lows have occurred synchronously across the WRDB. A more adequate assessment of the extremes in water availability will enable water managers to better prepare adaptation strategies for the future. The methods developed in this proposal will be applicable to many other regions in Canada. The three MSc students trained in this multi-disciplinary field will be able to work in a diversity of fields (e.g., science teachers, conservation authorities, park managers, environmental consulting companies, water-management positions). Highly trained personnel in environmental assessment, and particularly in water management, will continue to be in high demand.