Characterizing parameter and model uncertainty in rock engineering

近年来，岩石工程设计的数值方法和获取岩体数据的技术都取得了长足的进步。随着人口增长扩展到高山地区和深度超过1公里的大型露天矿坑，对地质力学模型和数据收集方法的要求继续增加。越来越多的地下矿山和隧道不得不在更深的地方和更复杂的地质和岩石环境中挖掘。在充满挑战的经济时代，工程师需要通过增加对相关风险的尽职调查来优化经济发展。尽管我们的模拟和数据收集能力有了巨大的发展，但由于意外的岩坡和矿山故障，我们仍然经常面临安全和经济问题；加拿大最近的一个例子是2008年波托湾岩坡坍塌，关闭了通往2010年惠斯勒奥运会的海天高速公路。岩石工程设计和分析中面临的一项基本任务与参数和模型不确定性的影响有关。这项研究致力于开发表征岩石工程中参数和模型不确定性的新方法。一种综合的岩石特征-数值模拟方法将使用最先进的技术来描述不同地下和地表环境中的岩石特征。将使用数值方法工具箱来探索输入数据中的不确定性对岩石破坏机制的数值建模的影响。模型不确定性的影响将使用从简单的2D到3D分析的一系列复杂程度不等的连续、不连续和混合代码来研究。对脆性断裂模型的强调将探索不确定性对离散断裂网络和随后的合成岩石方法的影响。拟议的研究将致力于将一套不确定性分析工具应用于岩石工程问题，并证明这种方法对于提高对岩石工程设计的信心的重要性。

Recent years have seen considerable advances in both numerical methods for rock engineering design and techniques for acquiring data on rock masses. The demands placed on both geomechanical models and data collection methods continue to increase as population growth extends into high mountain areas and large open pits reach depths of over 1km. Underground mines and tunnels increasingly have to be excavated at greater depths and in more complex geological and rock mass environments. In challenging economic times the engineer is required to optimize economic development with increased due diligence in terms of associated risk. Notwithstanding the enormous developments in our simulation and data collection capabilities we are still all too frequently faced with safety and economic problems due to unexpected rock slope and mine failures; a recent example in Canada was the 2008 Porteau Cove rock slope failure which closed the Sea to Sky highway, the route to the 2010 Olympics at Whistler. A fundamental task faced in design and analysis in rock engineering is associated with the implications of both parameter and model uncertainty. This research endeavours to develop new methodologies for characterizing parameter and model uncertainty in rock engineering. An integrated rock mass characterization-numerical modelling approach will use state-of-the-art techniques to characterize rock masses in varied underground and surface environments. The implications of uncertainty in input data for numerical modelling of failure mechanisms in rock will be explored using a toolbox of numerical methods. The influence of the model uncertainty will be investigated using a spectrum of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid codes ranging in complexity from simple 2D to 3D analyses. An emphasis on brittle fracture modelling will explore the implications of uncertainty on discrete fracture networks and subsequent synthetic rock mass approaches. The proposed research will endeavour to apply a suite of uncertainty analysis tools to rock engineering problems and demonstrate the importance of this approach toward achieving increased confidence in rock engineering design.