Seismicity analyses utilizing large-scale computer simulations

这项建议的主要目标是利用一个实际的断层计算机模型对地震活动进行大规模的数值模拟，并在分析地震活动方面发展新的统计方法和技术。模拟的主要输出将是跨越很长一段时间的合成地震目录，我们将应用最先进的统计分析，以便从“噪音”中提取“信号”。由于地震行为的复杂性，地震的物理和机制仍然远未被完全理解。需要进一步的研究来开发现实的模型，并使用这些模型来分析过去和未来的地震活动。从地震危险性评估的角度来看，这些研究也是至关重要的，其中概率预测起着至关重要的作用。

The main objectives of this proposal are to carry out large-scale numerical simulations of seismicity using a realistic fault-based computer model and also to develop new statistical methods and techniques in the analysis of seismicity. The primary output of simulations will be catalogs of synthetic earthquakes spanning long periods of time to which we will apply state-of-the-art statistical analysis in order to extract "signals" from the "noise". Due to complex behavior, the physics and mechanisms of earthquakes are still far from being fully understood. Further research is required to develop realistic models and to use these models to analyze past and future seismic activity. These studies are also crucial from the earthquake hazard assessment point of view where probabilistic forecasting plays an essential part.