Collision assessment for UAV

无法看到（感知）和避免（SAA）其他空中交通已被加拿大运输部，联邦航空局和国际民航组织认可为阻碍无人驾驶飞行器（uav）融入非隔离空域的主要障碍。最初的要求是无人机具有类似于人类飞行员的等效安全水平（ELOS），能够“看到”并避开交通。但ELOS现在被一种更可量化的衡量标准所取代：目标安全水平（TLS），即每飞行小时可能导致死亡的可接受的平均近距离碰撞次数。我的研究重点是针对一个新的分析工具来确定TLS，基于一个行业接受的统计（遭遇）模型，用于开发和验证TCAS。该方法是通过对大量可能遭遇的快速模拟来统计地确定TLS。新颖之处在于，该分析仪是“技术不可知论者”：它可以评估来自开发人员的早期SAA算法和来自监管机构的标准，而无需参考或在实施特定技术或适应特定标准之前。早期的结果可能是对无人机在人口稀少地区巡逻任务的风险进行科学量化（TLS），这可能对加拿大政府的北极主权政策产生直接影响。从长远来看，通过与麻省理工学院林肯实验室（FAA的承包商）合作，我们将在早期阶段为FAA SAA标准的起草提供“加拿大内容”，该标准可能随后被国际民航组织和加拿大运输部采用。在航空航天领域，SAA的发展受到循环依赖的抑制：监管机构正在寻求行业的投入，但许多行业在投资一项技术之前都在等待批准的标准。这项研究将打破这一僵局，促进行业增长。它开创了一种方法，使工业界能够在设备制造之前对技术进行评估，并使立法者能够在标准成为法律之前对其进行验证。由此产生的风险量化也将有助于保险业承保商业无人机服务：这是无人驾驶飞机行业增长的必要条件。

The inability to see (sense) and avoid (SAA) other air traffic has been recognized by Transport Canada, FAA and ICAO as a major impediment preventing the integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into non-segregated airspace. An initial requirement was for UAVs to have equivalent level of safety (ELOS) similar to a human pilot being able to "see" and avoid traffic. But ELOS is now replaced by a more quantifiable measure: targeted level of safety (TLS), the acceptable mean number of near collisions per flight hour which could result in fatalities. My research thrust is aimed at a novel analysis tool to determine TLS, based on an industry-accepted statistical (encounter) model used to develop and validate TCAS. The approach is to determine TLS statistically by fast simulation over a large number of probable encounters. A novelty is that the analyzer is "technology agnostic'': it can evaluate early-stage SAA algorithms from the developers and standards from the regulators, without reference to and prior to the implementation of a particular technology or adaptation of a certain standard. An early outcome could be a scientific quantification of risk (TLS) for UAV patrol duties over sparsely populated areas and this could have an immediate impact on the Government of Canada's policy on Arctic sovereignty. In longer term, by collaborating with MIT Lincoln Lab, a contractor to FAA, we are positioned to contribute "Canadian content", at an early stage, in the drafting of an FAA SAA standard, which will likely be later adopted by ICAO and Transport Canada. Within the aerospace sector, SAA development is stifled by a circular dependence: regulators are looking to the industries for input, but many industries are waiting for an approved standard before investing in a technology. This research will foster sector growth by breaking this deadlock. It pioneers a methodology which enables industry to assess a technology before equipment is manufactured, and legislators to validate a standard before it becomes law. The resulting quantification of risk will also help the insurance industry to underwrite commercial UAV services: a necessity for growth of the unmanned aircraft sector.