Selection of optimal design alternatives under conditions of uncertainty in underground hard rock mine valuation studies through assessment of strategic robustness tooperating risk

这项工作的重点是由操作风险驱动，而不是市场或矿体的不确定性，通过长期计划，利用现金流风险模拟，探索多变量系统中操作设计方案的鲁棒性。在一个竞争和不确定性日益扩大的世界里，战略适应性越来越被认为是企业成功的关键。鲁棒性指的是操作系统在正常条件下，以及在设计者的假设下的异常条件下都能表现良好。与下游的矿石加工不同，加拿大采矿业有改善其业绩预测的空间，以增强其竞争力。项目评估研究需要将风险评估与项目价值的底线输出联系起来。在地下矿山的经营中已经认识到，在信息有限的约束下，在规划项目的早期估价阶段节约的空间最大。一旦地面被打破，随着矿山的成熟，可用的替代品会呈指数级减少。多变量设计约束、问题变量的相互依赖以及确定输入变量分布的不确定性是为预测情景构建最优策略的挑战。需要通过在设计中引入质量和灵活性的替代方案来平衡操作的不确定性。

The focus of this work is driven by operating risk, as opposed to market or orebody uncertainty, to explore, using cash flow risk simulation, the robustness of operating design alternatives in a multivariable system through the long-range plan. In a world of widening competition and uncertainty, strategic adaptability is being increasingly recognized as critical to corporate success. Robustness refers to an operating system that performs adequately under ordinary conditions, but also under unusual conditions that stress the designers' assumptions. Unlike downstream ore processing, the Canadian Mining Industry has room to improve its performance forecasts, in order to enhance its competitiveness. A project valuation study requires risk assessment that links to bottom-line output project values. It has been realized in operating underground mines that the greatest scope for savings is presented during the early planning project valuation stage, under the constraint of limited information. Once ground is broken, the available alternatives diminish exponentially as the mine matures. Multivariable design constraints, the interdependence of problem variables and the uncertainty in determining the distribution of input variables are the challenges in building optimal strategies for forecasted scenarios. Operating uncertainty needs to be counterbalanced through the introduction of alternatives that introduce quality, and flexibility, in design.