Optimizing future networks of marine protected areas in response to global change by combining genetic connectivity and biophysical models

海洋生物多样性的保护和渔业的可持续性是全球面临的重大环境和经济挑战。解决这些问题的一个管理工具是海洋保护区的发展。尽管海洋保护区有助于渔业管理，但维持区域种群的最佳空间设计仍然存在不确定性，特别是因为捕捞压力和环境条件的变化都可能改变连通性模式。鉴于海洋保护区的数量可能会大幅增加，如果《生物多样性公约》的缔约方要实现到2020年保护世界10%海洋的目标，那么在海洋保护区网络中选择新的海洋保护区时，有效衡量并纳入种群之间的连通性就变得迫在眉睫。一个可靠的连通性测量应该包括物种扩散能力和遗传分化的数据。然而，目前，我们仍然缺乏大规模的遗传数据和扩散模型，以确定海洋保护区的最佳空间设计，并评估气候变化的影响。在本项目中，我们将生物物理海洋学模型、网络连通性模型、遗传人口统计学模型和基因组工具结合起来：(i)在两个建立海洋保护区网络的地区估计四种被开发物种（三种鱼类，一种无脊椎动物）的遗传连通性；（ii）比较未来气候变化和捕捞压力对遗传连通性潜在影响的备选情景。

The conservation of marine biodiversity and the sustainability of fisheries are major global environmental and economic challenges. One management tool that addresses these concerns is the development of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Although MPAs can contribute to the management of fisheries, uncertainties remain about the optimal spatial design of MPAs that will maintain regional populations, especially since changes in fishing pressure and environmental conditions may both alter connectivity patterns. Given that the number of MPAs is likely to increase substantially, if parties committed to the Convention on Biological Diversity are to meet the target of protecting 10% of the world's oceans by 2020, it is becoming urgent to effectively measure and incorporate connectivity between populations in the selection of new MPAs within MPA networks. A reliable measure of connectivity should include both data about species dispersal capacity and genetic differen-tiation. However, at present, we still lack the large-scale genetic data and dispersal models necessary to define optimal spatial design of MPAs, and evaluate the effects of climate change. In this project, we combine biophysical oceanographic models, network connectivity models, genetic-demographic models and genomic tools to: (i) estimate genetic connectivity for four exploited species (three fishes, one invertebrate) in two regions where MPAs networks are established; and (ii) compare alternative scenarios of potential impacts of future climate change and fishing pressure on genetic connectivity.