Natural versus anthropogenic forcing of variability in prairie hydroclimate

拟议的研究计划的目的是促进我们对过去和不久的将来加拿大西部内陆水文气候变化的模式和强迫的理解。历史上，该地区的极端气候是加拿大损失最大的自然灾害。科学方法将包括对仪器天气和水记录的统计分析，来自超过165个划定草原经济区的地点的树木年轮数据，以及全球和区域气候模型的输出。我们将通过以下方式改进我们的水文和气候树轮重建：a)监测径向生长对天气变量的响应；b)从我们的大型树轮档案中获得新的气候代用物（木材解剖，早期和晚期木材宽度和密度）；c)增强过量降水和冷季降水的信号。该研究是北美西部首次尝试将木质部物候学（木质学）与树木气候学联系起来。另一项创新是将气候代用物和模式的数据混合在一起，使我们能够通过树轮网络解释与区域水文气候学模式模拟和气候变率的大尺度强迫（遥相关）相关的水文气候变率模式。古气候视角为探测和解释水文气候振荡范围内的短仪器记录中的新趋势提供了重要背景。我们的工作在气候变化科学、统计水文学和水资源管理等领域有多种应用，并有机会与自然科学家和工程师以及调查社区和治理机构对气候变率和变化的反应的社会科学家合作。因此，拟议的研究计划在推进气候科学的同时提供研究结果（例如，干旱和过度潮湿的历史和预测概率分布），从而为决策提供信息，以防止或限制气候变化的不利影响。

The objective of the proposed research program is to advance our understanding of the modes and forcing of hydroclimatic variability in the past and near future in Canada's western interior. Historically, climate extremes in this region have been Canada's most costly natural disasters. The scientific approach will include the statistical analysis of instrumental weather and water records, tree-ring data from more than 165 sites that circumscribe the Prairie Ecozone, and outputs from global and regional climate models. We will improve our tree-ring reconstruction of hydrology and climate by a) monitoring radial growth response to weather variables, b) deriving new climate proxies (wood anatomy, early- and late-wood width and density) from our large tree-ring archive, and c) enhancing the signals of excess and cold season precipitation. The proposed research represents a first attempt in western North American to link xylem phenology (xylogenesis) and dendroclimatology. Another innovation is blending data from climate proxies and models, enabling us to interpret the modes of hydroclimatic variability expressed across our tree-ring network in relation to model simulations of the regional hydro-climatology, and the large-scale forcing of climate variability (teleconnections). The paleo-climatic perspective provides significant context for the detection and interpretation of emerging trends in short instrumental records that fall within oscillations of the hydroclimate. Our work has various applications in the fields of climate change science, statistical hydrology and water resource management, with opportunities for collaboration with natural scientists and engineers, and with social scientists investigating the reaction of communities and governance institutions to climate variability and change. The proposed research program is therefore novel in terms of advancing climate science while delivering findings (e.g. historical and projected probability distributions for drought and excessive moisture) such that they can inform decision making to prevent or limit adverse impacts of climate change.