Testing and Improving Models of Ice Sheet and Sea Level Evolution

海平面上升是当前和预期的全球变暖的主要危害之一。在全球范围内，有两个过程将主导这种变化：陆地冰（格陵兰岛和南极冰盖、较小的冰川和冰帽）融化和海洋变暖（导致海洋水量扩大）。在加拿大，以及在上一个冰河时期经历过冰川作用的其他高纬度地区，古代冰盖融化所引起的持续陆地运动也是当今海平面变化的一个重要因素。例如，加拿大大西洋沿岸地区正在经历海平面上升（相对于全球平均水平），原因是在距今2万至7000年前冰川融化造成的地面沉降。

Sea-level rise is one of the primary hazards associated with current and expected global warming. There are two processes that will dominate this change at global scales: melting of land ice (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, smaller glaciers and ice caps) and warming of the oceans (resulting in an expansion in ocean water volume). In Canada, as well as other high latitude regions that experienced glaciation during the last Ice Age, on-going land motion in response to the melting of ancient ice sheets is also a significant contributor to present day sea-level change. For example, coastal areas of Atlantic Canada are experiencing enhanced sea level rise (relative to the global mean) because of land subsidence due to the melting of ice between 20,000-7,000 years before present. The proposed research will contribute to our understanding of all of these processes through comparing output from computer models to observations relating to both past and present climate change. Specifically, models that simulate the response of ice sheets to climate change and those that simulate the corresponding changes in sea level will be tested and calibrated through these data-model comparisons. A primary focus of the research will be testing and improving models of Greenland ice sheet evolution so that the contribution of this ice sheet to future sea-level change can be more accurately determined. A key delivery of the research will be forecasts of future sea levels during the next century and beyond around Canadian coasts.