Simplified framework to forecast multimodal travel demand for mixed-use developments

评估城市发展对交通的影响是交通规划机构的一项常规工作。由于城市规划中的增量发展过程，采用区域土地利用和交通相互作用模型来评估个别发展对城市交通系统的影响有时是不切实际的。因此，一种常见的做法是使用“旅行生成手册”来快速评估城市中心任何个别发展对交通的影响。这种手册提供了一个简化的行程总数（从一个地方到另一个地方的单向移动）的大致变化表，这些变化可能由特定类型的开发（例如，住宅建筑、商业建筑、购物中心、医院等）引起。交通工程师学会（institute of Transportation Engineers，简称ITS）根据美国的发展历史编写了广泛使用的此类行程生成手册。在加拿大使用本手册的两个主要缺点是：-手册中所描述的交通影响，由于出行产生率可能不一定代表加拿大的城市环境。-没有考虑当地环境，如交通可达性、城市形态、社会经济条件等。，即使在加拿大境内，这也可能因城市地区而异。因此，使用ITE旅行生成手册导致加拿大城市中心交通影响评估的错误和往往具有误导性的结果。本研究将以大多伦多地区为研究区域，并在研究区域的各个部分建立交通影响的统计模型（根据不同模式产生的出行量）。该模型将在详细的土地使用属性和交通可达性相关变量方面采用城市中心的当地背景，以解释交通需求的影响，即与各种类型的城市发展相对应的出行产生的变化。开发的模型将展示使用特定于区域的模型，而不是naïve使用行程生成的实践

Evaluating traffic impacts of urban development is a regular and routine exercise of transportation planningagencies. Because of the incremental development processes in urban planning, it is sometimes impractical toemploy regional land use and transportation interaction models to evaluate impacts of individual developmentson the urban transportation system. So, a common practice is to use a 'Trip Generation Manual' to quicklyevaluate traffic impacts of any individual development in urban centres. Such a manual provides a simplifiedtable of approximate changes in an aggregate number of trips (one-way movement from one location toanother) that may be induced by the specific type of development (e.g., residential building, commercialbuilding, shopping malls, hospital etc.). The widely used manual for such trip generation is developed byInstitute of Transportation Engineers (ITS) based on development histories in the US. Two major drawbacks ofusing this manual in Canada are:-The approximate traffic impacts depicted by the manual as trip generation rates may not necessarily representCanadian urban contexts.-It does not consider the local contexts, such as, transit accessibility, urban form, socio-economic conditions,etc., that may vary from urban area to urban area even within Canada.So, the use of the ITE trip generation manual is leading to erroneous and often misleading results of trafficimpact evaluations in Canadian urban centres. This research will take the Greater Toronto Area as the studyarea and develop a statistical model of traffic impacts (in terms of trip generation by different modes) at variousparts of the study area. The model will take the local context of urban centres in terms of detailed land useattributes and transit accessibility related variables to explain the impacts of traffic demand in terms of changesin trip generation corresponding to various categories of urban development. The developed model willshowcase the use of a region-specific model as opposed to the naïve practice of using trip generation