Resilience Quantification and Risk Management of Water Resources Systems

水资源对我们社会的可持续发展至关重要。最近，与水有关的灾害对我们的基础设施提出了前所未有的要求，危及公共安全，阻碍经济增长。2013年发生在艾伯塔省的灾难性洪灾迫使超过10万人撤离，预计损失和恢复成本将超过60亿加元。自2012年以来，加州一直面临严重干旱，2015年，它造成了27亿美元的经济影响和2.1万人失业。与水有关的灾害的预测和管理面临各种挑战，这些挑战源于各种不确定因素和相互关联的复杂性，如随机降水事件、随机流动过程、系统参数的不精确估计以及决策过程中的模糊信息。这些不确定性可能导致难以量化复原力，从而难以确定可靠的风险管理战略。

Water resources are crucial to the sustainable development of our societies. Recently, water related hazards have been imposing unprecedented demands on our infrastructure, jeopardizing public safety, and hampering economic growth. The catastrophic floods in Alberta in 2013 forced the evacuation of over 100,000 people, and the damage losses and recovery costs are projected to exceed CAD $6 billion. California has been facing severe drought since 2012, and, in 2015, it incurred an economic impact of USD $2.7 billion and 21,000 job losses. The prediction and management of water related hazards are facing various challenges arising from numerous sources of uncertainties and interconnected complexities, such as random precipitation events, stochastic flow processes, imprecise estimates of system parameters, and fuzzy information in decision making processes. These uncertainties can lead to difficulties in quantifying resilience and thus, identifying reliable risk management strategies.