Modelling and Optimization of Supply Chain Disruptions due to Catstrophic Events

供应链管理要求协调不同公司之间的活动，从而形成一个相互关联的业务网络，减少库存。虽然这通常会带来更高效的供应链，但它也导致供应链中公司的风险敞口增加。产品和服务的复杂性增加以及离岸外包也增加了供应网络内的风险多样性。供应链运作模式传统上强调经济效率，导致供应链以最低库存和设施运作，这一事实可能会推迟从中断中恢复的进程。此外，准时制的使用意味着供应链减少了他们的供应商池，反过来，相互竞争的供应链往往共享同一供应商。因此，一个供应点的中断可能会导致多个供应链同时中断。例如，2011年洪水袭击泰国时，世界各地都感受到了洪水对汽车供应链的影响。在北美，本田宣布在加拿大和美国的产量将减少约50%，丰田不得不停止所有加班生产，并暂时关闭工厂。这种重大中断不仅是自然灾害带来的供应风险，也可能是需求和运营风险的结果。例如，在李斯特菌病爆发后，枫叶食品公司的召回导致250名工人暂时下岗，召回费用为2000万美元，以及2700万美元的集体诉讼和解费用。在经历了如此严重的供需中断之后，即便是在一度被视为纪律严明的供应链内部，企业也开始质疑它们运营供应链的方式，尤其是如何在设计和运营中融入风险效应。他们现在正在重新考虑他们的供应链网络配置和运营管理：他们是堆积库存，在风险事件发生后改变价格，增加昂贵的生产和/或分销设施，还是重组供应基础？鉴于这些灾难性事件发生的不确定性和善后决策的复杂性，重要的是供应链制定识别和评估风险的模型和适当的风险处理措施。因此，这项拟议研究的目标是开发供应链风险管理模型，以：(1)通过估计供应链中可能相关且可能涉及多个合作伙伴的多个事件的风险概率来了解供应链风险，(2)制定系统的程序来识别和评估供需风险以及它们如何在供应链中传播，以及(3)设计稳健的供应网络，该网络对中断具有弹性，并对可能的风险事件提供一定程度的免疫力。这些模型将有助于业务研究和管理领域的风险分析。预计他们还将受益于保险数学理论和不断增长的数据分析领域。除了培训研究生外，预计这项研究将为加拿大公司提供准备和缓解供应链风险中断的工具，从而有助于提高他们的竞争力。最近的一项全球采购研究进一步强调了研究这些问题的重要性，该研究发现，80%的公司容易受到重大供应中断的影响。此外，供应链环节发生故障的财务影响可能是巨大的。研究发现，在宣布供应链故障的那一天，一家公司的股价平均下跌10.28%。

Supply chain management calls for the coordination of activities between different companies resulting in an interlinked network of operations with reduced inventories. While this often leads to a more efficient supply chain, it has also resulted in increasing the risk exposure of companies in the supply chain. The increase in complexity and offshoring of products and services has also increased the risk diversity within the supply networks. The fact that supply chain operational models had traditionally emphasized economic efficiency, leading to supply chains operating on minimum inventories and facilities, is likely to delay the recovery from disruptions. In addition, the use of just in time systems had meant that supply chains reduced their suppliers pool and in turn competing supply chains often share the same supplier. Thus a disruption in one supply point can lead to simultaneous disruptions in several supply chains. For example, when the flooding hit Thailand in 2011, its effect on the auto supply chain were felt all over the world. In North America, Honda announced that its production in Canada and the US would be reduced by about 50% and Toyota had to stop all its overtime production and temporarily shut its plants. Such major disruptions are not unique to supply risks from natural disasters, they can also be the result of demand and operational risks. For example the Maple Leaf Foods recall after the listeriosis outbreak resulted in a temporary layoff of 250 workers, $20 million in recall costs and $27 million for settling class-action lawsuits. After such major supply and demand disruptions, even within the once thought of as highly disciplined supply chains, companies have started questioning the way they operate their supply chains and in particular how to incorporate risk effects in their design and operation. They are now rethinking their supply chain network configurations and operations management: Do they pile up inventory, change prices subsequent to a risk event, add expensive production and/or distribution facilities, or reorganize their supply base? Given the uncertainty in the occurrence of these catastrophic events and the complexity of the aftermath decision making, it is important that supply chains develop models for the identification and assessment of risk and appropriate risk handling measures. It is thus the goal of this proposed research to develop supply chain risk management models to: (1) understand supply chain risks by estimating risk probabilities for multiple events that may be dependent and may involve several partners in a supply chain, (2) develop systematic procedures for the identification and assessment of supply and demand risks and how they propagate through the supply chain, and (3) design robust supply networks that are resilient to disruptions and provide a level of immunity against possible risky events. The models would contribute to risk analysis in the area of operations research and management. They are also expected to benefit and contribute to the theory of insurance mathematics and the growing field of data analytics.In addition to training graduate students, it is anticipated that this research will contribute to the competitiveness ofCanadian companies by providing them with tools to prepare for and mitigate supply chain risk disruptions. Theimportance of studying these issues is further highlighted by a recent global procurement study that found that 80% of companies are vulnerable to a major supply disruption. In addition, the financial implication of a failure in a supply chain link can be enormous. Studies have found that a company’s stock price decreases on average by 10.28% on the day that an announcement of a supply chain failure is made.