Resilience Quantification and Risk Management of Water Resources Systems

水资源对我们社会的可持续发展至关重要。最近，与水有关的灾害给我们的基础设施带来了前所未有的需求，危害了公共安全，阻碍了经济增长。2013年阿尔伯塔省的特大洪水迫使10万多人撤离，损失和恢复成本预计将超过60亿加元。自2012年以来，加州一直面临严重干旱，2015年造成经济损失27亿美元，失业2.1万人。水相关灾害的预测和管理面临着各种各样的挑战，这些挑战来自于许多不确定因素和相互关联的复杂性，例如随机降水事件、随机流动过程、系统参数的不精确估计以及决策过程中的模糊信息。这些不确定性可能导致难以量化复原力，从而难以确定可靠的风险管理战略。******拟议的研究计划旨在开发一系列新的技术和方法，用于水资源系统的弹性量化和风险管理。重点领域一包括水文预报的不确定性分析和随机模拟技术的发展。重点领域二涉及风险评估和弹性量化的频率分析和多准则分析的进展。重点领域三旨在开发一个基于创新混合不精确优化方法的综合风险管理框架。就各种不确定性的分析和量化而言，拟议的研究计划代表了与环境风险管理相关的方法的独特贡献。它还将提供专门的HQP培训，以满足全球对水资源系统可靠风险管理框架的需求。******水资源管理实践带来的巨大的洪水/干旱破坏、重大的污染减排成本和深远的社会经济影响，需要将模式转变为弹性设计、级联减灾规划和系统风险管理方法。这项研究将为水资源管理提供直接而有力的决策支持，如水利基础设施设计、水库运行、洪泛区规划和干旱缓解。它将帮助加拿大的工业和各级政府不仅提高他们管理水和环境风险的效率，而且还将加强他们在不断变化的世界中对极端事件的准备、响应和恢复能力。

Water resources are crucial to the sustainable development of our societies. Recently, water related hazards have been imposing unprecedented demands on our infrastructure, jeopardizing public safety, and hampering economic growth. The catastrophic floods in Alberta in 2013 forced the evacuation of over 100,000 people, and the damage losses and recovery costs are projected to exceed CAD $6 billion. California has been facing severe drought since 2012, and, in 2015, it incurred an economic impact of USD $2.7 billion and 21,000 job losses. The prediction and management of water related hazards are facing various challenges arising from numerous sources of uncertainties and interconnected complexities, such as random precipitation events, stochastic flow processes, imprecise estimates of system parameters, and fuzzy information in decision making processes. These uncertainties can lead to difficulties in quantifying resilience and thus, identifying reliable risk management strategies. ******The proposed research program is designed to develop a series of new techniques and approaches for the resilience quantification and risk management of water resources systems. Focus Area I includes the development of uncertainty analysis and stochastic simulation techniques for hydrological forecasting. Focus Area II involves the advancement of frequency analysis and multi-criterion analysis for risk assessment and resilience quantification. Focus Area III aims at developing an integrated risk management framework based on innovative hybrid inexact optimization approaches. The proposed research program represents a unique contribution to methodologies related to environmental risk management, in terms of the analysis and quantification of various uncertainties. It will also provide specialized training of HQP that is tailored to meet the global needs for reliable risk management framework of water resources systems.******The vast flood/drought damage, major pollution abatement costs, and profound socio-economic impacts of water resources management practices necessitate a paradigm shift towards resilient design, cascading hazard mitigation planning, and systemic risk management approaches. This research will provide direct and robust decision support for water resources management, such as hydraulic infrastructure design, reservoir operation, floodplain planning, and drought mitigation. It will help industries and different levels of government in Canada not only to improve their effectiveness in managing water and environmental risks, but also to enhance their preparedness for, response to, and resilience under, extreme events in an ever-changing world.