Improving Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction Across Canada

地震地震动预测存在很多不确定性：地震破裂将如何在时间和空间上传播？地震震动的分布是怎样的？我的建筑能经得住震动吗？我的研究计划的长期愿景是提高对加拿大地震地面震动的预测，特别是了解地震波沿着其路径（区域尺度）和地表站点（局部尺度）穿越地球地质层时是如何改变的。为了实现这些目标，我将开发和应用最先进的地球物理技术：基于场的微震动方法和理论三维波传播模型。估计地震的影响或后果直接取决于对地震地面震动的估计，这依赖于对现场反应和地质放大的理解。这种理解将为一系列多学科的工作提供信息，这些工作旨在评估和减轻潜在的地震损失，包括人员伤亡、建筑物损坏和系统中断。****我的研究计划是了解地震现场的反应行为，从而预测地面震动的预期变化，将通过三个主要目标来实现：****1。加拿大西部和东部的现场特征研究：将在阿尔伯塔省、不列颠哥伦比亚省和安大略省进行基于现场的地震测量，以了解加拿大西部和东部土壤放大的差异并将其参数化。该目标将提供对加拿大不同地质环境下地震现场反应的理解。****2。通过计算方法解决地面运动的不确定性：将在三维地球模型中对加拿大特定区域的地震情景进行地震破裂的数值计算。这些计算模拟将解决当前记录地震数据中的空白，并量化地震地面震动的潜在范围（不确定性）。****3。改进当前的地震现场反应预测器：将根据地震和现场地震测量以及典型加拿大地质环境的计算模拟来确定不同频率（谱）的地震地面运动振幅。然后，可以为加拿大西部和东部的典型地质推导出光谱放大的定量不确定性界限，以提高我们对地震现场反应的理解及其在未来建筑规范中的处理。****准确预测地震地面运动对于生命安全（工程设计准则和规范）和规划（土地使用管理、应急响应、业务连续性、保险费率等）的目的非常重要。因此，本研究对地震工程界、科学界和应急管理界都具有重要意义

There is a lot of uncertainty in earthquake ground motion prediction: How will the earthquake rupture propagate in time and space?, What will be the distribution of earthquake shaking?, Will my building withstand the shaking? The long-term vision of my research program is to improve prediction of earthquake ground shaking across Canada, in particular understanding how earthquake waves are altered as they travel through the earth's geologic layers along their path (regional scale) and at a surface site (local scale). To achieve these goals, I will develop and apply state-of-the-art geophysical techniques: field-based microtremor methods and theoretical 3D wave propagation modelling. Estimating the impact or consequences of an earthquake depends directly on estimates of earthquake ground shaking, which are reliant on understanding site response and geological amplifications. This understanding will inform a range of multi-disciplinary works aimed at estimating and mitigating potential earthquake losses in the forms of casualties, building damage, and system interruptions.****My research program to understand earthquake site response behaviour and thereby predict expected variation in ground shaking will be achieved by three main objectives:****1. Site characterization studies in western and eastern Canada: Field-based seismic measurements will be performed in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario to understand and parameterize the differences in soil amplification between western and eastern Canada. This objective will provide an understanding of earthquake site response across Canada's varied geologic settings.****2. Addressing ground motion uncertainty via computational methods: Numerical computations of earthquake rupture within 3D earth models will be performed for region-specific scenario earthquakes in Canada. These computational simulations will address current gaps in recorded earthquake data and quantify the potential range (uncertainty) of earthquake ground shaking.****3. Improving current earthquake site response predictor(s): Earthquake ground motion amplitudes at various frequencies (spectra) will be determined from earthquake and field-based seismic measurements as well as computational simulations for typical Canadian geologic settings. Quantitative uncertainty bounds of spectral amplification may then be derived for typical geology in western and eastern Canada to improve our understanding of earthquake site response and its treatment in future building codes.****Accurately predicting earthquake ground motion is important for life-safety (engineering design guidelines and codes) and planning (land use management, emergency response, business continuity, insurance rates, etc.) purposes. Hence, the proposed research is important to the earthquake engineering community, as well as to the scientific and emergency management communities.***