Energy Transition Pathways: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

在可预见的未来，气候变化是地球面临的最大环境挑战之一。应对气候变化的战略分为三类。减缓旨在减少温室气体排放，例如，在能源系统中用可再生能源替代化石燃料。适应旨在限制气候变化的影响，而不限制气候变化本身，例如，通过建造海堤来抵御海平面上升。最后，气候地球工程对应于对气候系统的有意修改，例如，在平流层中注入硫以减少入射的太阳辐射。国际气候协议呼吁减少温室气体排放，但全球温室气体排放量仍在增加。因此，应当考虑替代战略，尽管它们存在相关的不确定性（例如，适应的有效性或气候地球工程的副作用）。这项研究的总体目标是评估适应和气候地球工程如何影响向遏制温室气体排放所需的清洁能源系统的过渡。该方法依靠综合评估模型来确定最佳气候政策。这种方法在一个数学模型中结合了经济和生物物理系统的关键要素，这些要素是气候变化现象的基础。这项研究将通过将能源部门的详细表示（以明确的温室气体减排方案）与适应和地球工程措施的建模相结合，有助于综合评估模型（iam）的发展。将特别注意围绕气候变化问题的许多不确定因素。通过对加拿大和世界其他地区进行气候政策分析，本研究还将有助于评估可能的气候变化战略。将缓解、适应和气候地球工程方案纳入综合管理方案的研究并不多见。本研究的兴趣首先是为仍处于起步阶段的结合这些策略的IAM文献做出贡献。因此，这项研究将引起包括加拿大环境部和加拿大自然资源部在内的整个综合评估界的兴趣。本研究提出的政策分析也将有利于加拿大的政策制定者和加拿大的公司。事实上，一方面，它将帮助加拿大决策者设计合理的气候政策，更好地确定通往更可持续能源未来的过渡途径。另一方面，这项研究将为活跃在国家自然资源部门的许多加拿大公司提供对可能的能源未来的不同分析。这将有助于他们了解自己的商业环境，并帮助他们在不断变化的能源市场中成功竞争

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future. Strategies for dealing with climate change enter three categories. Mitigation aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g., by substituting fossil fuel by renewables in energy systems. Adaptation aims to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself, e.g., by building sea walls to defend against rising seas. Finally, climate geoengineering corresponds to a deliberate modification of the climate system, e.g., the injection of sulfur in the stratosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation. International climate agreements are calling for a reduction in GHG emissions, but the latter are still increasing globally. Alternative strategies should therefore be considered, despite their associated uncertainties (e.g., in terms of effectiveness for adaptation or side effects for climate geoengineering). The general objective of this research is to assess how adaptation and climate geoengineering may affect the transition towards cleaner energy systems needed to curb GHG emissions. The methodology relies on integrated assessment modelling to determine optimal climate policies. This approach combines, within a mathematical model, key elements of the economic and biophysical systems, elements that are underlying the climate change phenomenon. This research will contribute to the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs) by combining detailed representations of the energy sector (to explicit GHG abatement options) with the modeling of adaptation and geoengineering measures. A specific attention will be given to the many uncertainties surrounding the climate change issue. By performing climate policy analyses for Canada and other world regions, this research will also contribute to the assessment of possible climate change strategies. Research incorporating mitigation, adaptation and climate geoengineering options into IAMs is uncommon. The interest of this research is first to contribute to an IAM literature on combining these strategies that is still in its infancy. As such, this research will be of interest to the entire integrated assessment community, which includes Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada. The policy analyses proposed in this research will also benefit Canadian policy makers and Canadian companies. Indeed, on the one hand, it will help Canadian policy makers design sound climate policies and better identify transition pathways toward more sustainable energy futures. On the other hand, this research will provide the many Canadian companies that are active in the nation's natural resources sector with different analyses of possible energy futures. This will contribute to their understanding of their business environment and help them successfully compete in changing energy markets.**