Development of a framework to quantify low-flow risks and uncertainty related to climate change in a Northern Quebec River for hydropower generation

气候变化的影响已经在全球许多地区被检测到。在加拿大北部，气候变化的速度远远超过了其他地区。这些变化正开始改变历史上预期的水文状况。对于在这些条件下运营的水电公司来说，评估气候变化对水电系统运行的影响至关重要。例如，如果低流量条件更加频繁，涡轮机可能无法达到其生产目标，甚至可能被迫长时间关闭。这项研究提案旨在制定一个框架，以便评估气候变化对设计和运营水电站的不同枯水门槛的影响。更具体地说，该项目将量化与水文气象数据集的限制、气候变化和特定的低流量指数有关的不确定性。将结合水文模型、再分析产品数据集和气候变化情景来评估各种枯水指标对总体不确定性的贡献。预计该项目将有助于加拿大北部现有和未来水电站的设计和运营决策，为当地社区带来更绿色的能源。它还将帮助利益攸关方就在与世隔绝的市场实施水电的可行性做出更知情的决定。

Climate change impacts have already been detected in many regions of the globe. For Northern Canada, the rate at which the climate is changing has exceeded other regions by a wide margin. These changes are beginning to modify the historically expected hydrological regimes. For hydropower companies operating in these conditions, it is critical to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydropower system's operation. For example, if low-flow conditions are more frequent, it is possible that the turbines will not be able to meet their production targets and might even be forced to shut down for extended periods. This research proposal aims to develop a framework allowing to assess the impacts of climate change on different low-flow thresholds for designing and operating hydropower generation stations. More specifically, the project will quantify the uncertainty related to limitations in the hydrometeorological datasets, to climate change and to specific low-flow indices. An ensemble of hydrological models, reanalysis product datasets and climate change scenarios will be combined to evaluate the contributions to the overall uncertainty on the various low-flow indices.It is expected that the project will aid in decision-making regarding the design and operation of current and future hydropower stations in Northern Canada, leading to greener energy sources for the local communities. It will also help stakeholders make better-informed decisions regarding the feasibility of implementing hydropower in isolated markets.