Evaluation of permafrost changes due to climate change

马尼托巴水电是一个电力和天然气公用事业在马尼托巴。水和土壤的冻融受气候变化的影响，可能迫使马尼托巴水电公司在不久的将来改变水资源和岩土工程管理。北方的基础设施和水资源管理适应措施最初的设计是依靠富含冰的冻土的特性。然而，由于气候变化，旧的设计假设不再有效。潜在变化的一个例子是土壤和地下水将如何在未来为可用水做出贡献以及这些水将如何得到补充。因此，多年冻土退化的一个关键因素是水文过程的变化，这是自由流动的水及其相关的，但目前未知的流动路径造成的。本项目将使用数值模拟研究当前和未来气候条件下永久冻土的热状态，并将建议马尼托巴水电公司在水库管理中需要考虑哪些额外的水文过程。这将使马尼托巴水电公司能够升级其目前的水文模型，并开发新的管理方案，以应对未来的潜在变化。因此，该项目的成果将支持马尼托巴省的能源安全。

Manitoba Hydro is an electric power and natural gas utility in Manitoba. Freezing and thawing of water and soil are impacted by climate change and might force water resource and geotechnical management of Manitoba Hydro to be changed in the near future. Northern infrastructure and water resources management adaptions were originally designed to rely on the properties of ice-rich frozen soil. However, due to climate change, old design assumptions are no longer valid. One example for potential changes are the questions how soil and groundwater will contribute to the available water in the future and how this water will be replenished. Thus, a critical factor in permafrost degradation are changes in the hydrological processes which results from free flowing water and their associated but currently unknown flow paths. This project will investigate the thermal status of the permafrost under current and future climate conditions using numerical modeling and will advise Manitoba Hydro which additional hydrological processes are needed to be considered in their reservoir management. This will allow Manitoba Hydro to upgrade their current hydrological models and to develop new management scenarios addressing potential changes in the future. Thus, the results of this project will support the energy security in the Province of Manitoba.