Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in the Context of System Transformation

在全球范围内，由于人类的影响，生态系统正在发生变化。变化的生态系统可能会跨越门槛；在这种情况下，变化可能是突然和迅速的，而不是渐进的，它可能导致生态系统状态的持久变化。然而，环境管理工作往往忽视潜在的门槛，假设生物多样性和自然造福人类的过程(生态系统服务)都发生了平稳、渐进或可逆的变化。这项提议试图在(1)沿海生态系统，(2)农业集约化和气候变化，以及(3)杀虫剂抗药性演变的背景下，描述跨阈值的生物多样性和生态系统服务变化的特征。*在这个项目中，我将与学生和合作者合作，通过涉及三个经验系统的建模和数据分析，促进我们对跨阈值状态变化的理解和应用。(1)我们将利用广泛的新数据集和生态系统模型，调查在温哥华岛西海岸从大片“海胆荒地”到以海獭/海藻为主的生态系统转型期间，区域规模的生态系统及其提供的服务如何发生变化。(2)我们将调查气候变化和土地利用变化如何相互作用，引发哥斯达黎加鸟类群落和生态系统服务的快速变化；我们还将询问哪些土地利用和土地管理变化可能缓解这些变化。(3)我们将评估害虫天敌的存在和丰富如何防止农业和水产养殖系统突然转变为持久的杀虫剂抗药性状态。*我的实验室小组的分析方法的多样性与我们的项目合作者的分析方法相补充，为学生和博士后的创新和培训提供了丰富的跨学科环境。通过与各种组织和机构的合作和咨询关系，我们将把我们的研究成果与加强渔业和海洋、濒危物种、虫害控制和环境评估的管理和政策联系起来。再加上利奥波德领导力计划和其他培训带来的沟通和参与努力，这项研究将有助于更好地保护生态系统及其为加拿大人和世界各地的人们提供的服务。**

Globally, ecosystems are changing as a result of human influences. Changing ecosystems may cross thresholds; in such situations, change may be sudden and rapid rather than gradual, and it may result in a persistent change in ecosystem state. Yet, environmental management efforts frequently ignore potential thresholds by assuming smooth, gradual, or reversible changes in both biodiversity and the processes by which nature benefits people (ecosystem services). This proposal seeks to characterize biodiversity and ecosystem-service change across thresholds, in the contexts of (1) coastal ecosystems, (2) agricultural intensification and climate change, and (3) evolution of pesticide resistance.***In this project, I will work with students and collaborators to advance our understanding and application of state changes across thresholds through modeling and data analysis involving three empirical systems. (1) We will investigate how regional-scale ecosystems and the services they provide change during system transformation on the west coast of Vancouver Island, from large expanses of `urchin barrens' to sea otter/kelp-dominated ecosystems, using an extensive new data set and ecosystem model. (2) We will investigate how climate change and land-use change interact to trigger rapid shifts in bird communities and ecosystem services in Costa Rica; we will also ask what land-use and land-management changes might mitigate these transformations. (3) We will assess how the presence and abundance of natural predators of pests might prevent sudden shifts in agricultural and aquacultural systems to persistent states of pesticide resistance.****The diversity of my lab group's analytical approaches complements those of our project collaborators to provide a richly interdisciplinary setting for innovation and training of students and postdoctoral fellows. Through collaborative and consulting relationships with a wide variety of organizations and agencies, we will relate our research results to enhanced management and policy for fisheries and oceans, species at risk, pest control, and environmental assessment. Coupled with communication and engagement efforts informed by the Leopold Leadership program and other training, this research will contribute to better safeguards for ecosystems and the services they supply to Canadians and people everywhere.**