Drivers and predictability of forest fire activity across the circumboreal zone of Northern Hemisphere (PREFIRE)

在月、季和年以上时间尺度上预测森林火灾活动的能力对于减轻其影响至关重要，包括火灾驱动的生态系统动态和社会经济服务。火是北方森林生态系统动态的主要驱动因子，直接影响全球碳平衡和大气中微量气体（包括二氧化碳）的浓度。海洋-大气系统的复原力为提前探测即将到来的火灾季节强度提供了可能性。涉及世界海洋能量平衡的大规模异常和相关的大气压力模式一再被证明会影响干旱状况，这表明湿度和能量传输的大规模变化是区域火灾活动的重要驱动因素。早期的研究表明，海洋表面温度（SST）的变化和相关的压力模式之间有很强的联系，迫使陆地降水量的变化，随后，区域火灾制度。可以合理地预期，海洋和大气之间类似的遥相关，控制火灾制度，延伸到整个环北方地区。这种遥相关的一个可能来源是北极气候（如海冰条件），厄尔尼诺南方振荡（ENSO）和大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）之间的相互作用。特别是，这一生物群落接近寒冷和干燥的北极气团，使北方森林对持续的气候变化敏感，增加了发生长期极端天气事件的可能性，包括春季和夏季干旱。森林火灾活动增加背后的极端气候也可能是大气特征的全球性特征的产物，例如行星波的放大。 PREFIRE寻求：* （1）依靠对现代和历史火灾活动以及气候-海洋变异性的多个代用指标的分析，确定控制北方火灾活动的气候驱动因素及其在月、季和年时间尺度上的可预测性，和 *（2）提供未来火灾活动的十年和百年预测，并将其转化为对生态系统服务的影响（特别是森林生产力和碳储量）。* 我认为，有一个强大的潜力，在使用大量的树木年代重建，以提高极端天气的可预测性，如区域性火灾活动增加的时期。我建议，他们的分析与独立获得的气候变率和植被覆盖的代理应有助于更好地了解现代气候的森林火灾和火灾活动的可预测性在多个时间尺度的驱动因素。

The ability to predict forest fire activity at the monthly, seasonal, and above-annual time scales is critical to mitigate its impacts, including the fire-driven dynamics of the ecosystem and socio-economic services. Fire is the primary driving factor of ecosystem dynamics in the boreal forest, directly affecting global carbon balance and atmospheric concentrations of the trace gases, including carbon dioxide. The resilience of the ocean-atmosphere system provides the potential for the advanced detection of the upcoming fire season intensity. Large scale anomalies involving the energy balance of world oceans and the associated atmospheric pressure patterns have been repeatedly shown to affect drought conditions, pointing to the large-scale changes in humidity and energy transport as important drivers of regional fire activity. Earlier studies showed strong links between changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and associated pressure patterns, forcing changes in land precipitation and, subsequently, regional fire regimes. It is reasonable to expect that similar teleconnections between ocean and atmosphere, controlling fire regimes, extend over the entire circumboreal region. A likely source of such teleconnections is interactions between the Arctic climate (such as the sea-ice conditions), El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations (AMO). In particular, the proximity of this biome to cold and dry Arctic air masses makes the boreal forests sensitive to the ongoing climate change, increasing the probability of long-lasting extreme weather events, including spring and summer droughts. It is also possible that climate extremes behind the increase in forest fire activity may be a product of global features of atmospheric features, such as amplification of planetary waves. PREFIRE seeks: ***(1) to identify climatic drivers controlling boreal fire activity and its predictability at the monthly, seasonal and annual timescales by relying on analyses of multiple proxies of modern and historic fire activity and climate-ocean variability, and ***(2) to provide decadal and century-scale predictions of future fire activity and to translate them into impacts on ecosystem services (in particular forest productivity and C storage capacity). ***I argue that there is a strong potential in using a large body of dendrochronological reconstructions to improve the predictability of weather extremes, such as periods of regionally increased fire activity. I propose that their analyses with independently obtained proxies of climate variability and vegetation cover should contribute towards better knowledge of modern climate drivers of forest fires and the predictability of fire activity at multiple temporal scales.